4/29/2015

穿戴裝置研討會到物聯網革命

今天參加穿戴裝置研討會,許多講者分享他們在maker與hacker的經驗,給我印證上周讀物聯網革命那本書的一些心得。許多物聯網的變化正在發生,包括用3D列印義肢,用3D列印手機都成真了。這些改變將使得物聯網變得更快。

參考今天講師蔡政和的舉例,深圳一家叫匯成它的HC-05的藍牙模組,只要把Arduino的主機板結合進去,人人都可很快自建一個藍牙裝置。

特斯拉當初組成的電動車,它就是整合不同元件供消費者可以自行組合。未來的產業是講成立一個大平台,讓不同的廠商提供不同配件共組大的生態系統。
李仁貴老師講物聯網的問題,各家大廠並不願意開放他的Sourcecode,因而各自建規挌。大廠講的大至少是一次能生產3百萬片。他把其他maker的概念都冷諷了。

李老師講他先前的專案,把血壓量完送到雲端,但他去問醫院,醫院不認同這些資料為醫療資料,若是個人健康資料,醫院則不重視。他也找不到適合的健促機構可提供加值服務。

李老師曾與紡織業者合作設計智慧衣,他遇到問題是,要靜止量或緊身量?藍牙模組要縫在衣服那裡?不會干擾心臟?老人不願緊身穿衣則量不準?老人若在移動中,量得的心率資料一定很多雜訊。

他曾做過ECG(電子心率圖)也認證過了,卻賣不出去。他做過團體心率顯示板給健康中心,但教練不願接受。他也做過PPG(脈搏光學測量)可做到手錶上量心跳,目前要克服的問題是控制整個表厚須低於1公分。另他取得耳朵內量心電的專利了。現在他用手錶量病人HRV4小時來協助判斷該病人是否可出院?未來仍要用衣服來量測,問題在於電池,伏貼,夠小等。

李老師講,智慧手錶有什麼價值會使人戴到手上?若有手錶,手環仍有市場?智慧衣服有機會,但仍有許多待突破的問題。健康促進比醫療容易,但雜訊耗電仍是問題。

綜合來說物聯網雖然有很大的市場聲量,穿戴設備也有大量的出貨,但顯然還沒在應用上有確切的商業模式。初期仍以企業選用為主(B2B),消費者端甚至智慧家庭都只是賣一些配件為主(包含小米手環或apple Watch。)

許多人號稱maker+hacker帶來的自造商機,市場看法應二極,支持以後人人皆自產自做。不支持者仍等待大企業如apple提出一個良好體驗的產品。這要看技術與消費者行為如何改變。

物聯網六領域,製造業,國人防災安全,公用事業(電力),交通,建築居家,醫療健促。全都有BZB的應用,唯後三者包含B2c與民眾相關的服務,物聯網的發展要達到物聯網革命一書的民眾自造的境界,即使可能,也不會在未來的5~10年內實現。還有許多挑戰。

穿戴式裝置產學合作及創新產品研討會

Gartner曾預測至2017年約50%穿戴式裝置及物聯網解決方案將來自於利基市場應用「自造者」(Maker)或三年內新創公司,而非傳統科技大廠。未來國內穿戴式裝置應用產業如何鏈結具技術含量的學研單位或創意Maker團隊,提供使用者友善溝通介面及創新產品應用為發展重點。
資策會今天在南港軟體工業園區,舉辦『穿戴式裝置產學合作及創新產品應用研討會』,會議中針對穿戴科技發展關鍵、共通平台及介面開發、智慧穿戴生活應用、以及產學合作發展模式等議題進行研討交流。
首先由資策會產業推動與服務處長柯獻堂開場。來賓看來大多是學校電子電機相關領域的教授以及部分穿戴裝置產業界工程師等。
產推處點出經濟部的產業升級創新平台輔導計劃。他們可協助業者和教授們一起寫計劃向科技部與工業局申請科專。他們説以往4一5月就有40多件申請,今年則只有10多件,特別提出來澄清。
我納悶,政府每年花這麼多錢給產學研究,原來學校企業的目標只是拿到預算補助,而資策會擔任顧問。
接下來是makerpro.cc 總主筆歐敏銓先生介紹穿戴裝置的未來。
一)熱門主題。new reality/hololens, apple watch, wearable drone- nixie ( intel 競賽之冠軍)。narrative clip( 穿戴相機,實用不足,因模糊歪斜)。智慧頭盔helmet (例DAQRl募資不成功,工業巡視檢修用
較有機會)。
二)五感裝置。耳機(Jabra),眼鏡(ORCAM),觸摸(tactile 盲文手表,senseg的觸感平板),眼球追蹤(jins meme判別疲勞),智慧戒指(手寫,手語翻譯,MYO肌肉收縮做控制,RlTOT在手上當螢幕),BCl(腦波運算介面)。智慧紡織(衣服,貼片,鞋襪)
三)智慧奶嘴(pacfi), 導盲鞋,外骨骼(人造機械義肢,3D義肢Robohand。
四)loT經濟=prosumer/maker economy

接下來mokoversity.com創辦人jollen chen 主講WOT(W3C,開放的IOT Cloud)他是創客學院及wotcity.com新創人,是個hacker。他提出新的通訊技術http://到websocket ws://及 coap://  有 rest object and physical web.
  這位陳俊宏先生有些料,只是講得太深入科技而不易理解。他提到coap取代http,用UDP取代TCP協定,使IOT裝置間可以很輕資訊量互動。IOT未來3大議題,隱私,安全及個人化。因為現在手機或裝置都是大公司製造他們會埋碼無償取得你的個資,集中化大資訊中心。未來則可自己製造手機及軟體,用open的標準,個人化硬體,自己的自由雲,則不再擔心隱私和安全。
Http://mbed.org 是ARM建立的組織。而他與潘昊,馮玉麟,胡翔等合組 openmbed.org 計劃。硬體商有的敏捷製造可協助。他新創公司wot.city 近期會上線,他要找共創合夥人。他不靠賣原始碼賺錢,而是在來來他的wotcity 會用openbed 技術來做成模組供用戶自建手機及lOT手環,他提供雲給人儲存,他要賣雲空間,分析及服務。

晶睿通訊范姜士武的介紹,QT@Taiwan 的粉絲團。QML來打造程式。原來他是在幫qt 這個公司的產品站台,太過技術了。有興趣可到http://qt.digia.com 取得更多資料。

鋼鐵人實作聯盟蔡政和先生介紹他看到maker的機會及產業思維。有關他的嵌入式自由軟體聯盟http://www.oesf.org.tw 鋼鐵人實戰聯盟則在facebook上搜尋MONSKER。因為時間關係,他說的不多。

最後一段是由北科大教授李仁貴提出智慧量測服飾在健康量測。他提到PC時代來到智慧行動裝置的時代,也同時帶動了穿戴式裝置的風潮。只不過,究竟穿戴式裝置如何定義呢?根據市調機構VDC(Venture Development Corporation)認定,可穿戴式電子裝置定義須符合以下條件:


1.具有一個CPU硬體;

2.具有可自行設定功能的軟體裝置;

3.系統可穿戴於使用者身上;

4.具有線/無線通訊裝置連結穿戴者電腦;

5.穿戴智慧型紡織物具有GPS、RF或不同目的的感測晶片。

電子互動式紡織品擁有很大的潛力,可改善目前人體保健的常規,以提供監測呼吸、心律、應力程度、及身體溫度等資訊,電子紡織物可以增加病人的行動性、提供便利性及改善有健康問題者或殘障者的生活品質。高效能電子運動服還可以用來追蹤以及強化效能,尤其是在健身房的建身者,以及體能極限運動的活動。





4/28/2015

Marketing in a digital world(2)product innovation

Coursera 課程 marketing in a digital world 的第一章講到產品:在數位時代裡,產品的設計開發,可以透過網路來協同創造。主要概念有兩個: co-creation & deppelganger

概念一:co-creation:
在數位時代的産品,設計概念已不再是公司決定做什麼,而是要訪問客戶共同來創造。老師提出四個觀點:
(1)traditional innovation practices are less than ideal.
(2)anything  can be co-created.
(3)  your contributors may not be your customers.
(4) non-customers may be just as valuable as customers.

如何吸引客戶共同為產品創新?老師Aric畫了一個矩陣並舉例來說。
水平軸是客戶的回饋或貢獻度高低
垂直軸是公司的選擇是公司或客戶主導
四種形式各是submit/sharing (electrulux), codesign(threadless), tinker(little big planet), collaborate(Appache software) 。老中各舉一個例子,以及進行的步驟。

實務上他給了4個建議,大約1%有效(rule of one),要實名制(authenticity is critical),給予標章鼓勵(patches and badges 未必是金錢激勵),別當壞人(don't be the bad guy)。

實際案例包括localmotors.com  的TWiST rally fighter 的設計。

概念二:doppelganger brand image (DBI)
在數位時代,許多品牌會被惡搞,反而變成負面品牌在網上流傳。
網路上的註解:The doppelgänger ( double goers/walkers)brand image is basically a family of defamatory images and stories about a brand circulated locally by a network of consumers, anti-brand activists, bloggers etc. With the passage of time these criticisms coalesce and form a larger threat which can wipe the brand image of its foundations.

我們要知道為何網友要對品牌進行DBI(kuso或反諷?)
-也許是品牌的宣傳過於誇大不實?
-也許品牌太大,令人眼紅?

如何對付DBI?
1:追蹤網路上的蛛絲馬跡
2:辨識及追蹤那些品牌異議份子及他們這麼做的原因
3:發展及測試用新故事去描述DBl或𨍭換話題
4:用病毒行銷方式拡散去扭轉負向意見






4/24/2015

一個好領導有多重要?Jack Welch的接班人

来源:福布斯中文网 

摘錄部分重點來自這篇文章(可以在 Forbes 找到英文版的原文: A leader failure ),我們在EMBA讀到GE,是個典範的企業,尤其JECK WELCH 的成功,讓他所做的所有決策都變成個案重點。即使連選出IMMELT這個領導人,也是EMBA重要的個案。 但這位作者的批評,似乎否定了我們對EMBA個案的信任。

摘錄的5段文字如下:
(1)通用电气(General Electric)董事长兼首席执行官杰弗里·伊梅尔特(Jeffrey Immelt)上周宣布,他的下一个大动作将是抛售该公司名下的房地产资产和金融服务业务的剩余部分。这是一笔价值达3,000亿美元的资产买卖。而在此之前,该公司2013年出售了NBC环球(NBC/Universal),2014年大手笔地剥离其个人银行部门Synchrony Financial。
(2)在伊梅尔特先生接过首席执行官的位子时,当时通用电气的股价为每股约40美元。而上周,该股的交易价格为每股25美元左右,跌幅达37.5%。而在同一时间段里,道琼斯工业平均指数(Dow Jones Industrial Average)则从9,600点飙升至17,900点,涨幅达86.5%。
(3)在伊梅尔特先生之前执掌通用电气的是杰克·韦尔奇(Jack Welch)。他任职期间的通用电气处于巅峰时期,公司为投资者创造的财富高于美国历史上任何一家上市公司。在1981年至2001年间,通用电气的市值增长了40倍(4,000%)。随着市场的转化为营收及利润增长创造新的机遇,他带领通用电气拓展到新的业务领域,往往大幅偏离该公司最初起家的工业制造领域。在韦尔奇先生的带领下,通用电气从一家主要从事多元化制造的公司,扩展到房地产行业,因为这类资产在当时有所升值,接着又开始涉足媒体行业,因为当时广告营收一路飙升,最后则是金融服务业,因为管制的放松打开了市场,带来了银行业历史上最高的回报率。杰克·韦尔奇堪称他那个时代的史蒂夫·乔布斯。因为他富有远见,敢于推动通用电气涉足新市场、开发新产品并将公司发展壮大。通用电气实现的增长如此可观,以致于该公司的名字动不动就出现在新闻里,投资者们喜不自禁。
(4)伊梅尔特先生执掌通用电气期间,该公司并没有开发出任何新市场。他也没有将公司带入任何主要的增长领域。便携技术领域的爆炸性增长为苹果(Apple)和谷歌(Google)的投资者们创造了大笔财富,而通用电气却完全错过了打入物联网领域的机会。伊梅尔特先生所率领的通用电气不仅没有基于wifi、便携、移动和社交领域的新技术开发出新的产品,反倒是将旗下的家电部门卖给了伊莱克斯(Electrolux),然后将换得的33亿美元全部用在了股票回购上。
(5)在伊梅尔特时代,通用电气的故事一直是被各种事件推着走,而非引领它们。在同样的背景下,史蒂夫·乔布斯接过一间支离破碎、深陷困境的公司,凭借自己的远见引领公司积累了巨大财富;杰克·韦尔奇凭借自己的远见,打造出了一间全世界规模最大、适应力最强也最强大的企业之一;而杰弗里·伊梅尔特及其团队却在几乎所有关键点都被各种事件所压制。伊梅尔特首席执行官接过了一间可以称作是上世纪领军企业的公司,却因缺少重现其昔日辉煌的规划,把它搞得七零八落。整个过程都显示了他彻底失败的领导力。

  译 薄锦 校 陈岳林  

4/23/2015

物聯網-IBM透過 Apple 手機在醫療研究上合作

IBM & Apple Expand Partnership to Help Transform Medical Research/IBM Watson Health Cloud to Provide Secure Cloud Platform and Analytics for HealthKit and ResearchKit App Data 

根據2015/4/13 IBM新聞稿, IBM宣布他的採用蘋果的ResearchKit and HealthKit frameworks 來建構Health Cloud 並成立Watson Health business unit 可以提供醫療研究中心儲存醫療資料並提供分析服務。

Apple's HealthKit enables developers to create consumer health apps designed to give users a more comprehensive way to manage their health and fitness, and ResearchKit is an open source software framework that gives medical researchers the tools to accelerate medical studies. HealthKit can be used to create apps that monitor health behaviors and help encourage users to adhere to their treatment plan. Participants who opt-in to apps using ResearchKit can also contribute their health information to medical research/science/medicine.

IBM will de-identify and store health data in a secure, scalable cloud system that enables researchers to access and share data in an open ecosystem environment, as well as have access to IBM's data-mining and predictive analytics capabilities. Health and fitness app developers and medical researchers will be able to draw on data at a scale that until now has never been available. For apps using HealthKit and ResearchKit, IBM will provide a delivery platform through Health Cloud to easily store, aggregate and model data, combining it with other data sources and types to enrich research findings and identify the next frontiers of medical discovery.

IBM will also build a suite of enterprise wellness apps using HealthKit. These IBM MobileFirst for iOS apps will be designed for enterprises to work with their employees to better manage their health needs across acute diseases to general fitness.

4/21/2015

Marketing in a digital world (1)課程大綱

COURSERA 今天台灣開出的新課程, Marketing in  a digital world. 主講者為 Aric Rindfleisch 他任職於 Head of the Department of Business Administration, John M. Jones Professor of Marketing, and Executive Director of the Illinois MakerLab at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.  He was recently named by Princeton Review as one of “The Best 300 Professors” in America.
New digital tools, such as 3D printers, allow consumers to take a more active role in various marketing activities such as making their own products. Thus, the balance of power is shifting from firms to consumers. You will explore this new digital realm and discuss its revolutionary impact upon both firms and consumers. Managers will learn how to use these tools to strengthen their marketing efforts, while consumers will learn how to use these tools to enhance their consumption experience.

Our course will review the foundations of marketing (i.e., production, promotion, placement, and price) and discuss how these foundations are being shifted by the rise of new digital tools. We'll employ a variety of learning techniques, including video lectures, case studies, and interviews with both digital experts and digital consumers. Our learning approach will be highly interactive; you will have the opportunity to engage in a variety of hands-on activities, such as offering new product ideas to Starbucks, making new entries in Wikipedia, and designing your own 3D printable products. I hope you will join us in this learning experience.

參考課本: Understanding Digital Marketing: Marketing Strategies for Engaging the Digital Generation by Damian Ryan (2014)

課程大綱

Module 1: Course Overview and Digital Tools for Developing Innovative New Products
Basic Concept: Product
Digital Concept: Customer Co-Creation
Case Study: Local Motors
Digital Concept: Doppelgänger Brands
Exercise: MyStarbucksIdea.com
Campus Spotlight: John Rogers

Module 2: Digital Tools for Persuading Customers to Buy Your Products
Basic Concept: Promotion
Digital Concept: Authenticity
Case Study: Pepsi Refresh
Digital Concept: User-Generated Content
Exercise: Wikipedia.org
Campus Spotlight: Alan Craig

Module 3: Digital Tools for Effectively Distributing Your Products
Basic Concept: Placement
Digital Concept: New Retail
Case Study: Threadless
Digital Concept: 3D Printing
Exercise: Thingiverse.com
Campus Spotlight: Travis Ross

Module 4: Digital Tools for Setting the Right Prices for Your Products
Basic Concept: Price
Digital Concept: Pay What You Want
Case Study: Radiohead
Digital Concept: Price Comparison Tools
Exercise: RedLaser.com
Campus Spotlight: Hari Sundaram

物聯網革命(5)MOOC線上教育和白領失業

第七章作者提到MOOC對教育的衝擊。這部分的大趨勢跟作者其他章節的資本主義倒台物聯網的普及未來的大同世界都沒有必然的因果關係。這是一個正在發生的事實值得我們認真思考與期待。因為網際網路的普及, MOOC的興起開始打破傳統的教育模式。我把本書看到的精華摘要如下。

 

資本主義時代的學校教育比較像是就業訓練版。The classroom was transformed into a microcosm of the factory. Students were thought of as analogous to machines. They were conditioned to follow commands, learn by repetition, and perform efficiently. The teacher was akin to a factory foreman, handing out standardized assignments that required set answers in a given time frame. …Education was supposed to be useful and pragmatic. The “why” of things was less discussed than the “how” of things. The goal was to turn out productive employees. …In the Collaborative Age, learning is regarded as a crowdsourcing process and knowledge is treated as a publically shared good, available to all, mirroring the emerging definition of human behavior as deeply social and interactive in nature. (page 91)

Service learning is predicated on the assumption that learning is never a solitary affair but ultimately a shared experience and a collaborative venture that is best practiced in real communities where people live and work. Students generally volunteer in nonprofit organizations where they learn by serving the larger interests of the community of which they are a part.(page 93)

 

在大學學費高漲即將造成貧窮人口求學門檻的高牆, MOOC (Massive Open Online Courses)成為創造協同共享的教育平台。包含Couresa, edX等。

Coursera’s founders brought on the University of Pennsylvania, Stanford, Princeton, and the University of Michigan for starters, giving Coursera the academic heft to build out their vision. Coursera was followed by edX, a nonprofit consortium put together by Harvard and MIT. Coursera now has 97 participating universities as of this writing. EdX has also expanded to more than 30 universities. (page 95)

這種模式有三個基礎: (1) 5~10 分鐘的影片學生可以暫停或重看有一些輔助教材; (2) 學生必須練習小考,然後有成績,  甚至由同學互像評分; (3)形成跨國或跨領域的同學交流。(page 96)

By February 2013, Coursera had approximately 2.7 million students from 196 countries enrolled in hundreds of courses. EdX’s first course, in 2012, had an enrollment of 155,000 students. One recent study found that 32 percent of the students failed or withdrew from online courses compared to only 19 percent that took the course in a traditional classroom. …Educators have pinpointed a number of causes for the lower completion rates. At the top of the list is the feeling of isolation. …Participating MOOC universities are beginning to address the sense of isolation by offering what they call “blended classes” in which students enroll online and also take part in classroom projects with other students and faculty…. Another reason for low motivation was that early on, the MOOCs only offered “a statement of accomplishment” and a grade, but in 2013, they began to offer course credits as well. (page 97) 

Stanford University courses cost approximately $10,000 to $15,000 to put online. Courses with video content can cost twice that amount…. The participating universities pay Coursera around $8 a student to use the Coursera platform and an additional $30 to $60 a student to take the course—all in all, nearly free. By contrast, the University of Maryland, a typical public institution of higher learning, charges about $870 per course for in-state students and about $3,000 for out-of-state students. (page 98)

問題是這些名校如果都開授網路課程跟學生不收費那不會排擠到哪些到校註冊繳學費的學生嗎當未來網路上課也可以拿到學位企業主也接受網路文憑時名校想的也許是透過免費課程可以吸引少數學生來付高學費如果他們不做他們的名校地位會往下滑還有他們也要及早參與網路課程以便邊走邊學。(page 99)

 

作者在第8章提到勞工與知識白領都將失業會被新科技所取代。作者描寫的現象在許多類似的文章都出現過。這個趨勢並不是物聯網興起造成的也不表示資本主義即將崩壞。我記錄書中提到的下列幾點這是所有上班族或是藍領勞工需要提醒自己。

當這麼多人失業後從企業,零售業司機或是工廠失去工作那他們要做什麼呢作者沒有交代未來的樣貌沒有提到全球幾億失業人口造成的問題,似乎只提到人人都是prosumer (producer+consumer), 人人都在家中用zero marginal cost 發電人人都在協同共享。

我把作者提到的一些重點摘錄下來當做我們反思的參考。

The Economist noted that this is what Jeremy Rifkin, a social critic, was driving at in his book The End of Work, published in 1995. . . . Mr. Rifkin argued prophetically that society was entering a new phase—one in which fewer and fewer workers would be needed to produce all the goods and services consumed. . . . The process has clearly begun. (page 100)

In the period of the Great Recession, economists discovered that while millions of jobs were irreversibly lost, productivity was reaching new peaks and output was accelerating around the world, but with fewer workers at their stations…. Between 2008 and 2012, while the Great Recession was bleeding workers, industry was piling on new software and innovations to boost productivity and keep profitable with smaller payrolls. The effect of these efforts is striking. (page 101)

作者引用許多數字來解釋歐美各國電腦化與自動化生產後,刪減工人確提升產能的現象。他舉台灣郭台銘的話, Foxconn, the giant Chinese manufacturer that produces iPhones, plans to install one million robots in the next few years, eliminating a large portion of its workforce. Terry Gou, CEO of Foxconn, whose global workforce totals more than one million, joked that he would prefer one million robots. “As human beings are also animals, to manage one million animals gives me a headache.”(page 102)

If the current rate of technology displacement in the manufacturing sector continues—and industry analysts expect it to only accelerate—factory employment, which accounted for 163 million jobs in 2003, is likely to be just a few million by 2040, marking the end of mass factory labor in the world.While some human labor is required to manufacture robots, create new software applications to manage production flows, and maintain and upgrade programs and systems, even that professional and technical labor is diminishing as intelligent technology is increasingly able to reprogram itself. (page 103) …There are currently over 2.7 million truck drivers in the United States alone. By 2040, driverless vehicles, operating at near zero marginal labor costs, could eliminate much of the nation’s truckers. (page 104) On the surface, brick-and-mortar sales appear healthy, if not robust. They made up 92 percent of retail sales in 2011, versus only 8 percent online. …With online retail stores expected to double by 2020, many more brick-and-mortar retailers, already stretched by falling profit margins, are likely to succumb to virtual retailing. (page 105)

IT, computerization, automation, Big Data, algorithms, and AI are quickly reducing the marginal labor costs of producing and delivering a wide range of goods and services to near zero. The First Industrial Revolution ended slave and serf labor. The Second Industrial Revolution dramatically shrank agricultural and craft labor. The Third Industrial Revolution is sunsetting mass wage labor in the manufacturing and service industries and salaried professional labor in large parts of the knowledge sector.(page 108)

 


物聯網革命(4)3D列印

第六章作者提到3D列印。我真的認同神奇的3D列印的發展趨勢。這部分的大趨勢跟作者其他章節的資本主義倒台物聯網的普及未來的大同世界都沒有必然的因果關係。這是一個正在發生的事實值得我們認真思考與期待。他需要資本投入需要企業經營也許要協同合作。我把本書看到的精華摘要如下。

 

3D列印與傳統製造業不同的7個地方(page 75~77) : 

1.需要很少人工, The software does all the work, which is why it’s more appropriate to think of the process as “infofacture” rather thanmanufacture.”

2.軟體來自公開分享的來源, the early practitioners of 3D printing have made strides to ensure that the software used to program and print physical products remains open source, allowing prosumers to share new ideas with one another in do-it-yourself (DIY) hobbyist networks.

3.傳統生產用減法, 3D列印用加法, Traditional factory manufacturing is a subtractive process. Raw materials are cut down and winnowed and then assembled to manufacture the final product. In the process, a significant amount of the material is wasted and never finds its way into the end product. Three-dimensional printing is additive infofacturing. The software is directing the molten material to add layer upon layer, creating the product as a whole piece. Additive infofacturing uses one-tenth of the material of subtractive manufacturing, giving the 3D printer a substantial leg up in efficiency and productivity.

4.零組件也都自己列印, 3D printers can print their own spare parts without having to invest in expensive retooling and the time delays that go with it. With 3D printers, products can also be customized to create a single product or small batches designed to order, at minimum cost.

5.更加環保,3D printing movement is deeply committed to sustainable production. Emphasis is on durability and recyclability and using nonpolluting materials. William McDonough and Michael Braungart’s vision of “upcycling”—adding value to the product at every stage of its lifecycle—is built into the ecology of production.

6.在地化省去行銷成本舉例Rob KalinEtsy website, 亦有90萬商品, 6千萬客戶, a local 3D printer can power his or her infofactory with green electricity harvested from renewable energy onsite or generated by local producer cooperatives. a small 3D printing operation anywhere in the world can advertise infofactured products on the growing number of global Internet marketing sites at nearly zero marginal cost. 

7.省去運送成本, they can power their vehicles with renewable energy whose marginal cost is nearly free, significantly reducing their logistics costs along the supply chain and in the delivery of their finished products to users.

 

3D 列印已經發生了

參考 Star Trek 電影情節. In long journeys through the universe, the crew needed to be able to repair and replace parts of the spaceship and keep stocked with everything from machine parts to pharmaceutical products. The replicator was programmed to rearrange subatomic particles that are ubiquitous in the universe into objects, including food and water. (page 78)

1.Open-source 3D printing 3D列印機可以自體繁殖 : Adrian Bowyer and a team at the University of Bath in the United Kingdom invented the RepRap, the first open-source 3D printer that could be made with readily available tools and that could replicate itself—that is, it was a machine that could make its own parts. The RepRap can already fabricate 48 percent of its own components and is on its way to becoming a totally self-replicating machine. (page 79)

2.讓跟多人擁有3D列印機自己製造東西:  MakerBot Industries, financed by Bowyer, was one of the first enterprises to emerge out of the Makers Movement, with the market introduction of its 3D printer, called Cupcake, in 2009. A succession of more versatile, easier-to-use, and less costly 3D printers followed, with names like Thing-O-Matic in 2010 and the Replicator in 2012. (page 79)

3. MIT成立3D列印社群與實驗室(Fab Lab in 2005). The Fab Lab, a fabrication laboratory, is the brainchild of the MIT physicist and professor Neil Gershenfeld. The idea came out of a popular course at MIT called How to Make (Almost) Anything.” the mission of providing a laboratory to which anyone could come and use the tools to create their own 3D-printed projects. The labs are outfitted with various types of flexible manufacturing equipment, which includes laser cutters, routers, 3D printers, mini mills, and the accompanying open-source software. Setting up the fully equipped lab costs around $50,000. There are now over 70 Fab Labs. (page 80)

4. 全錄提供3D列印太陽能版與電路板, Xerox is developing a special silver ink that could be substituted for the silicon that is currently used as the semiconductor within photovoltaic (PV) solar cells. The silver ink melts at a lower temperature than plastic, which could allow users to print integrated circuits into plastic, fabric, and film. DIY printing of paper-thin PV solar strips could allow anyone to produce their own solar harvesting technology at an ever-diminishing cost, bringing solar energy a step closer to near zero marginal cost. (page 80)

5. 在沙漠中聚焦太陽光把沙子3D列印成玻璃: Markus Kayser, a graduate student at the Royal College of Art in London, has invented a Solar Sinter 3D printer that prints glass objects from sun and sand. The Solar Sinter, which was successfully tested in the Sahara Desert in 2011, is powered by two PV panels. It is also equipped with a large lens that focuses the sun’s rays to heat sand to a melting point. (page 81)

6. 3D印家具或小東西不希奇, Khoshnevis在國防部與NASA支持下實驗印建築物, His team has already successfully constructed a wall that is 5 feet long, 3 feet high, and six inches thick using a 3D printer. He believes that 3D-printed building construction will be the dominant industry standard by 2025 around the world. Janjaap Ruijssenaars, a Dutch architect, is collaborating with Enrico Dini, chairman of Monolite, a

U.K.-based 3D printing company. The two Europeans have announced that they will print out six -nine-foot frames made of sand and inorganic binder and then fill the frames with fiber-reinforced concrete. They hope to have a two-story building up in 2014. (page 81)

7. 3D列印汽車 Urbee 已經在測試了: The Urbee was developed by KOR EcoLogic, a company based in Winnipeg, Canada. The automobile is a two-passenger hybrid-electric vehicle, which is designed to run on solar and wind power that can be harvested in a one-car garage each day. The car can reach speeds of 40 miles perhour. If long driving distances are necessary, the user can switch over to the car’s ethanol-powered backup engine. …Most of the parts in the car are made with 3D-printed plastic, with the exception of the base chassis and engine.28 The rest of the car is produced in layers, which are “added” one onto another in a continuous flow rather than being assembled together from individual parts, meaning less material, less time, and less labor are used. A six-foot-high 3D printer poured out Urbee’s shell in only ten pieces, with no wasted material. (page 82)

 

作者推崇甘地的經濟觀: Not mass production but production by the masses. 這段話也成為這一章的副標題。作者認為甘地的觀念跟他的TIR(third industry revolution)的理念很像許多觀點在IoT & 3D列印出現後都逐步呈現了。只可惜他太前衛了50年前就看到這種collaborative commons的趨勢。

(1)The capitalists’ desire for efficiency and productivity would result in an unyielding drive to replace human labor with automation, leaving more and more people unemployed and without sufficient purchasing power to buy the products being produced. Gandhi’s alternative proposal was local production by the masses in their own homes and neighborhoods—what he called Swadeshi. The idea behind Swadeshi was to “bring work to the people and not people to the work.” (page 88)

(2)His philosophy emphasized decentralized economic production in self-sufficient local communities; the pursuit of craft labor over industrial machine labor; and the envisioning of economic life as a moral and spiritual quest rather than a materialist pursuit. For Gandhi, the antidote to rampant economic exploitation and greed is a selfless commitment to community. (page 89)

(3)He believed in a virtuous economy in which the community’s interest superseded individual self-interest and argued that anything less depreciates the happiness of the human race. For Gandhi, happiness is not to be found in the amassing of individual wealth but in living a compassionate and empathic life. He went so far as to suggest that “real happiness and contentment …consists not in the multiplication but, in the deliberate and voluntary reduction of wants,” so that one might be free to live a more committed life in fellowship with others. (page 89)

(4)Earth provides enough to satisfy every man’s need but not enough for every man’s greed. Gandhi’s belief that nature is a finite resource imbued with intrinsic value that requires stewardship rather than pillage fits the new realization that every human being’s life is ultimately judged by the impact of his or her ecological footprint on the biosphere in which we all dwell. (page 90)

 

總之, Maker movement (人人都是製造者)的四大原則: the open-source sharing of new inventions, the promotion of a collaborative learning culture, a belief in community self-sufficiency, and a commitment to sustainable production practices. 3D列印技術將是未來個人化製造新產品的趨勢。

 


物聯網革命(3)有關物聯網IoT

雖然本書從物聯網到協同共享到資本主義衰亡的邏輯間有問題,但它有些介紹的內容,是有知識性的,可以參考。後續幾篇會分別摘要重點,並說明趨勢。


IoT 由三個網路組成(page 18)

IoT is made up of a Communications Internet, an Energy Internet, and a Logistics Internet that work together in a single operating system, continuously finding ways to increase thermodynamic efficiencies and productivity in the marshaling of resources, the production and distribution of goods and services, and the recycling of waste. Each of these three Internets enables the others. Without communication, we can’t manage economic activity. Without energy, we can’t generate information or power transport. Without logistics, we can’t move economic activity across the value chain. Together, these three operating systems comprise the physiology of the new economic organism.

 

IoT 因硬體降價與IP增加而普及 (Page 63)

The term Internet of Things was coined by Kevin Ashton, one of the founders of the MIT Auto ID Center, back in 1995. In the years that followed, the IoT languished because the cost of sensors and actuators embedded in “things” was still relatively expensive.

Between 2012 and 2013, the cost of radio-frequency identification (RFID) chips, which are used to monitor and track things, plummeted by 40 percent. These tags now cost less than ten cents each. The price of micro-electromechanical systems (MEMS), including gyroscopes, accelerometers, and pressure sensors, has also dropped by 80 to 90 percent in the past five years.

The other obstacle has been the Internet protocol, IPv4 which allows only 4.3 billion unique addresses on the Internet. Now, a new Internet protocol version, IPv6,has been developed by the Internet Engineering Task Force; it will expand the number of available addresses to a staggering 340 trillion trillion trillion—more than enough to accommodate the projected 2 trillion devices expected to be connected to the Internet in the next ten years.

 

IoT 的隱私與資安也許不是問題因為未來的大同世界人們不需要太多隱私(Page 64-65)

For a younger generation growing up in a globally connected world where every moment of their lives are eagerly posted and shared with the world via Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Instagram, and countless other social media sites, privacy has lost much of its appeal. For them, freedom is not bound up in self-contained autonomy and exclusion, but rather, in enjoying access to others and inclusion in a global virtual public square. The moniker of the younger generation is transparency, its modus operandi is collaboration, and its self-expression is exercised by way of peer production in laterally scaled networks.

Whether future generations living in an increasingly interconnected world—where everyone and everything is embedded in the Internet of Things—will care much about privacy is an open question.

The central question is: When every human being and everything is connected, what boundaries need to be established to ensure that an individual’s right to privacy will be protected?

Cyber thieves can steal personal identities for commercial gain, social media sites can sell data to advertisers and marketers to enhance their profits, and political operatives can pass on vital information to foreign governments. How then do we ensure an open, transparent flow of data that can benefit everyone while guaranteeing that information concerning every aspect of one’s life is not used without their permission and against their wishes in ways that compromise and harm their well-being?

Yet there is a clear understanding that if the proper balance is not struck between transparency and the right to privacy, the evolution of the Internet of Things is likely to be slowed, or worse, irretrievably compromised and lost, thwarting the prospects of a Collaborative Age.

 

經濟學人對IoT的研究報告,企業界都認同物聯網對未來產業的衝擊(Page 66)

In 2013 The Economist’s intelligence unit published the first global business index on the “quiet revolution” that’s beginning to change society. The Economist surveyed business leaders across the world, concentrating on the key industries of financial services, manufacturing, health care, pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, IT and technology, energy and natural resources, and construction and real estate. The report started off by observing that the rapid drop in technology costs and new developments in complimentary fields including mobile communication and cloud computing, along with an increase in government support, is pushing the IoT to the center stage of the global economy.

(A)38 % corporate leaders forecast that the IoT would have a “major impact in most markets and most industries” within the next three years, and an additional 40 % said it would have “some impact on a few markets or industries.” Only 15 % felt that the IoT would have only “a big impact for only a small number of global players.”

(B)75 % global companies are exploring or using the IoT in their businesses to some extent.

(C)40 % CEOs, CFOs, and other C-suite level respondents say they have “a formal meeting or conversation about the IoT at least once a month.”

(D)30 % corporate leaders:  IoT will “unlock new revenue opportunities for existing products/services.”  29% : IoT “will inspire new working practices or business processes.” 23%: IoT “will change our existing business model or business strategy.”  23 %: IoT “will spark a new wave of innovation.”  

(E) > 60 % executives “agree that companies that are slow to integrate the IoT will fall behind the competition.”

 

The central message in The Economist survey is that most corporate leaders are convinced that the potential productivity gains of using the Internet of Things across the value chain are so compelling and disruptive to the old ways of doing business that they have no choice but to try to get ahead of the game by embedding their business operations in the IoT platform.


4/20/2015

物聯網革命(2)書評

這幾天認真讀讀這本書,想知道這位社會經濟學家如何看待物聯網,也想要看看為何台灣的翻譯成為物聯網革命。大陸簡體版譯成零成本社會,翻譯的也不好,標準翻譯是零邊際成本的社會。

作者這本書幾個重點,(1)宣告資本主義將沒落到消失,取而代之的是協同共享 collaboraive commons的經濟模式。作者用很大的篇幅說明資本主義的問題。(2)市面上已經出現的零邊際成本的經營模式。作者拿3D列印,MOOC(免費線上課程),免費能源(太陽能或風力)等來說明。(3)協同共享的社會-作者塑造了一個科技的烏托邦。(4)社會資本取代金融資本,群眾集資,社群彼此分享而不擁有,社群互相分享而不交換。彷彿孔子提到的大同世界。

我看完第一章後,就現作者的邏輯不清楚,但是他用力搜集很多資料,填塞在文章當中,這些資料並不能佐證他的論點,卻讓讀者分心去想像發展的契機。作者把全世界熱門的話題物聯網拉進來,說明物聯網成熟將造成第三次工業革命,以及給摧毀資本主義燃起引爆點。但是這些論述,卻看不出明顯的邏輯關聯性。

作者強調物聯網的組成:通訊,能源和物流。未來的世界,人人與萬物都已經連上網路(通訊),未來每個人都可以在家裡辦公室自己發電,多餘的電力也可以與親友分享(能源),未來人人可以自己零邊際成本的生產商品人人都是prosumer (production  consumer)也在社區內互通有無,透過物聯網充分掌握彼此的數量,達到最佳生產效能(物流)。作者強調這是協同共享的社會, 大家不需要擁有,而是彼此分享,彷彿古代富足的社會,大同世界。他的假設是,自然資源都被完全有效應用,因此社會完全富足,人人無所爭,因此彼此分享。

作者認為,未來世界因為  zero marginal cost, 因此,price is free for consumer。他強調它可以忽略期初投資成本,也不計算原材料成本, 只看到零邊際成本,所以斷定,消費者可以免費的取得商品。這一點,是許多書評對本書攻擊的重點,也是我讀不下去的原因之一。

作者假設3D列印後,消費者可以生產所有他想要的東西,而且是零邊際成本,包括手機。我就想到,手機的零組件有數百種,消費者取得原料都不用成本?根據作者的觀點,如果全世界幾百萬人都在生產同一款手機,所有的材料的邊際成本都將趨緊為零。根據經濟學的原理,邊際成本在超過一定數量後,新增加的單位成本為零,但不代表前面那幾百萬個的單位成本為零。作者如果腦筋清楚應該了解這點,但是他模糊的寫進書裡面,卻把一堆腦筋不清楚的讀者給矇混了!

作者提到每個人家裡都可以架多個太陽能版,然後就可以開始發電了。因為太陽能是沒成本的,所以發電沒有成本。作者在這裏同樣在矇混腦筋不清楚的讀者。家中要有太陽能板,蓄電池,光電轉換模組,傳輸線路等等,這些都不用成本?作者假設全世界數億個家庭都在使用,後來的邊際成本將近於零。但是,生產這些硬體,晶片,光版,都需要資本家投資啊。難道所有的東西都可以3D列印?那3D列印機也是消費者自己生產?

MOOC如 coursera 這種線上課程,都是消費者自己PO上去,其他消費者就可以上課,所以都沒有邊際成本。這說法對嗎?課程或知識本身,在製作成教材或進行研究,都需要投入研究實驗的成本吧,製成教材過程還有老師與團隊的時間成本。作者是把,人的時間成本忽略了!

作者把每個人都想成大公無私,不會計較的人。所有的商品都可以自己生產,不會生產過剩,還可以互相分享。因為沒有計較,不許擁有,也就不需要貨幣來交易,只要社會資本(信用)就可以和樂融融。這種烏托邦的假設,相信很多學者不會相信,但作者的崇高理想,卻呼應了古代儒家,佛家,基督徒,馬克斯共產人士的支持。

我看國外的書評,大家認同未來世界有很多的變化,協同合作,非營利組織,物聯網都是發展的趨勢,但是這些趨勢兜起來,未必會得到資本主義死亡的結論。大家都認為作者的許多資料,摘取自許多學者的研究論文或大企業(IBM/CISCO等)對未來的研究報告,每一個數據都有價值,但是兜在一起,是否有邏輯的關聯,就見仁見智。

因為書名跟物聯網有關,我原本要在讀書會導讀,但閱讀到這,我發現我經濟學識不足,無法批評,也不想浪費時間去舉證。就把這本書擱著吧。



4/15/2015

物聯網革命(1)書目錄The zero marginal cost society

作者:傑瑞米.里夫金(Jeremy Rifkin)

  享譽全球的未來學大師兼著名經濟學家、美國華府經濟趨勢基金會(Foundation on Economic Trends)總裁、賓州大學華頓商學院(The Wharton School)高階主管教育計畫資深講座教授。他也是具有國際聲譽的社會評論家和暢銷書作家,其著作已翻譯成超過35種語言。目前為歐洲聯盟及世界各地許多國家元首的顧問。
1: The Great Paradigm Shift from Market Capitalism to the Collaborative Commons
PART I
THE UNTOLD HISTORY OF CAPITALISM
2: The European Enclosures and the Birth of the Market Economy 3: The Courtship of Capitalism and Vertical Integration
4: Human Nature through a Capitalist Lens
PART II
THE NEAR ZERO MARGINAL COST SOCIETY
5: Extreme Productivity, the Internet of Things, and Free Energy
6: 3D Printing: From Mass Production to Production by the Masses
7: MOOCs and a Zero Marginal Cost Education
8: The Last Worker Standing
9: The Ascent of the Prosumer and the Build-out of the Smart Economy
PART III
THE RISE OF THE COLLABORATIVE COMMONS
10: The Comedy of the Commons
11: The Collaboratists Prepare for Battle
12: The Struggle to Define and Control the Intelligent Infrastructure
PART IV
SOCIAL CAPITAL AND THE SHARING ECONOMY
13: The Transformation from Ownership to Access
14: Crowdfunding Social Capital, Democratizing Currency, Humanizing Entrepreneurship, and Rethinking Work
PART V
THE ECONOMY OF ABUNDANCE
15: The Sustainable Cornucopia 
16: A Biosphere Lifestyle
第一部 即將式微的資本主義
第一章 共享經濟時代已經來臨
第二章 市場經濟的誕生
第三章 資本主義與垂直整合的親密連結
第四章  資本主義透鏡下的人性
第二部 一切終將免費的社會
第五章  帶來全球數十兆商機的物聯網
第六章  從大量製造轉為大眾製造的3D列印
第七章  能容納二十億學生的教育殿堂
第八章  即將失去工作的上億勞工
第九章 智慧經濟體系的持續擴張
第三部 共有資源的崛起
第十章 共有資源的悲劇?
第十一章 開放共享vs.專利保護的世計大戰
第十二章 通訊、能源、物流共有資源的智慧架構
第四部 社會資本與共享經濟
第十三章 從所有權到取用權的轉變
第十四章 群眾募資、社會資本、貨幣民主化與重新定義的工作
第十五章 重拾永續價值
第十六章 打造全新的生物圈社群

秦始皇(9)讀書會

今晚秦始皇這本書的讀書會,由我導讀,我就拿過去8篇秦始皇的心得,為大家引言。然後大家討論秦始皇的故事。
讀書會特別的地方,就在於,每個人的觀點不同,切入點也不一樣。

一,吃人頭路,要做人才或奴才?奴才很多時候反而得到比較多。人才的世界比較寬廣,此處不留人,自有留人處。李斯原本想做人才,一開始,處處碰壁,果然找到好發揮的秦國做人才,幫了秦始皇。但他在秦始皇底下,就是奴才,設法為虎作倀。
二,扶蘇為何不叛變?同樣是死,可以抗命一博,也可以乖乖自殺,他為何懦弱?無解。
三,成功的領導人有什麼特質?要懂得認錯,就像秦穆公對百里奚和官兵們認錯。謙卑自強,然後能成大事。
四,秦始皇是成功嗎?前半段統一天下是成功的,後半段自欺欺人是失敗的。
五,秦穆公和由余的賽局。(見下一篇)
六,理智勝情感可以成功,那我們看到的一些學法律的政治人物,無情講理智為何沒有成功?因為,他們沒有明確的使命與願景,只會在枝微細節上理智,就不會成功。有些政治人物的目標是錯的,堅持錯的方向,就會失去人心信任,這種理智也不會成功。

有些領導人,沒有定見,跟著他的底下人,眼睛就要放亮一點,當他喊衝的時候,不要跟著衝,因為他可能衝出去沒幾步,就會後悔了,然後叫大家往反方向衝,這時先衝的還要再回頭,甚至成為最後一名。

領導人最大的悲哀,就是不懂得懷疑長期信任的部屬。許多人的失敗,就是因為太相信對方,相信曾經給他的恩惠,他不會忘記,相信他會永遠對你忠誠。秦始皇完全信賴趙高與李斯,最後害他亡國與絕子絕孫,就是這兩個他最信任的人。

子嬰為何能殺死趙高?因為子嬰防備趙高,而趙高從頭就看扁子嬰,相信子嬰完全依賴他。

歷史的三個功能,啟發智慧,審時度勢,感動人心。

一個人會上當,不是他笨,而是他貪

今天讀書會當中,特別讀到這個故事,非常有趣的賽局。

由余祖先是晉國人,但因為某些緣故,身處西戎,並因懂得漢語而被戎王所用。

秦穆公被晉國打敗,秦國一度國力大減。戎王派由余前來秦國考察,探虛實。秦王知道來意,如何接待?

秦穆公展現最富麗堂皇的一面,並給由余好的居處和車馬。由余如何回答?

由余說,秦國國立衰退,卻展現富麗堂皇,這就是中原文化的虛偽。他數落從黃帝以來,中原不斷戰亂,就是假禮義之名,而勞民傷財。秦王怎麼回?

秦王說戎王不懂禮義規章,怎麼治理? 由余回說,戎王靠純德與中信來取得民眾的信任,不需矯飾。

秦王知道由余是賢人,相信這是憂患啊。那他怎麼辦? 殺掉他還是收買他?

內史進言設計害由余。他抓住的是,一個人會上當,往往不是因為他笨,而是因為他貪。

內史要秦王跟戎王要求留下由余,讓由余多觀察秦國。然後贈送女人音樂給戎王,讓戎王沈溺在音樂。過了一年,才讓由余返國,由余勸諫戎王振作,秦王並派人去邀請由余過來考察,讓戎王對由 余產生懷疑。

當由余走投無路,秦王收留由余,然後重用他,回頭去攻擊戎王。由余感念秦王,當然為親王賣命,滅了12個戎王的附屬國。

做臣子的,要學會算計,知道誰可信任? 畢竟他的血統是漢人,戎王怎麼會相信他?也要學會知道,那個君王比較有頭腦。

4/13/2015

創業(1)創業策略與分析架構

最近有機會擔任創業輔導,以提供自己在創新服務的開發經驗,以及在大企業累積的經驗,可以分享給年輕人。有些心得摘要如下:

創業者,絕對不是從零開始。首先要有一個已經在從事,或是產生現金流的主業,慢慢創造新的事業,把新事業從副業孵化成未來的主業。有個朋友,取得某項專業的設備,可以代理那個設備,慢慢摸索,等到時機成熟,才辭去原來的工作,全心投入新事業。另一個朋友,原本就在從事咨詢的行業,只是先寄人籬下,等到摸熟了也發現可以差異化創新的機會點,才出來創業。另一個朋友則是,先有一個工作,製造出一個新產品,同時他有一群死忠的同好需要這個產品,他摸索市場,不太確定下,找我討論可能的模式。

以上的經驗是,創業者,要先找到他想做的事情,或是他可能拿來賣錢的產品。先有offering,才可以構建business model。

構建 business strategy的第一步,先分析市場(ARENA),有什麼你想要競爭或取代的市場,也就是先標定什麼產業?什麼競爭舞台?有哪些競爭者?最重要的,這些競爭者的產品不夠好,無法滿足消費者的需求,或是過度滿足而不夠便宜。

分析市場,還是要先有自己想做的產品或服務,作為比較的基礎。自己想做的產品可以再修改,但是一定要有雛型,才能辨識競爭者。初期競爭者,也可能是合作夥伴,也可能是上下游的供應商或通路,但是唯有辨識誰已經在哪裡賺暴利,卻沒有完全滿足消費者的需求,這就是機會。

分析市場時,小心看,如果市場很小(顧客少)或是利潤微薄(成本高),沒有暴利與機會,就要考慮調整市場。所以,我們在思考市場價值時,總是把收入成本,售價單位成本都放在盤算。

第二步,描繪消費者的輪廓,找到切入的管道(VEHICLE),想想誰會是你的潛在客戶,他們的社經地位與付錢能力,他們的人口統計屬性與消費行為特性,都把他們描繪出來。對潛在顧客越清楚,越容易修正產品服務內容,甚至簡化不必要的原件,節省成本。也更清楚未來行銷4P的規劃與收入成本。消費者族群可以切割細分,先不要急著窄化目標,也不要貪心想要大小通吃。

不同的族群,有不同的溝通管道與銷售通路,銷售的過程是否搭配不同商品服務,或是進行配套。也許要先透過他們熟悉的競爭品牌,或是俱有公信力的第三方單位,才容易切入。

第三步,STP(segment, targeting, positioning),做到差異化(DIFFERENTIATION)。承前述的分群,看看產品如何提供給不同族群,可以先鎖定幾個族群,看看自己產品與競爭者產品的定位差異, 可以吃到多大市場,划不划算。再回頭調整鎖定的族群規模, 以及調整產品服務的定位。

簡單說,就是要找到自己的差異化優勢,或是成本優勢。
憑什麼,消費者不要用現有競爭者的產品,而要轉(switch)過來用你的產品?
你有創造什麼不同的價值(different value)可以分隔市場?或是收取較高的價格?
最難的,你要如何 sustain the advantage?你能搶別人的市場,別人可能重力還擊,甚至與你同歸於儘,你有什麼本事,可以支撐下去?

第四步,建構business model, 擬定實現計劃(STAGES)。
產品的銷售通路, 售後服務管道,續約回購的配套。
產品生產的關鍵技術,關鍵合作夥伴,須執行的關鍵活動。
產品的行銷計劃,如何讓消費者Aware, interest, desire, action, share,repurchase?
產品組合的擴充,新產品的加入,新市場的佈建等。

第五步,計算經濟模型(ECONOMY)
收入動能,各項產品的單價x數量
成本,各項產品的單位成本x數量,分攤的成本
費用,辦公管銷,行銷,研發,後勤的費用等
如果不能賺錢,就要想如何把餅做大,或是先節省成本
經濟模型,包含損益表,資產負債表,現金流量表與股東權益表

我特別強調,雖然創業維艱,朋友可以共患難,但是最好把股東權益表講清楚說明白,不要到了突然賺大錢時,大家才翻舊賬,為了分利益而破壞和諧。

以上講的還是很空泛的原理,畢竟不能夠把別人的秘密攤在文章內。但相信認真思考過,也聆聽應證過我說的話,就會有所感。


念科大還是大學

小孩子今年參加學測,面臨讀科大還是大學的選擇。
因為兩個環境的特質不同,小孩子進去後,未來被形塑出來的樣子將大不同。不可不慎。
由於小孩子的成績屬於中上,距離一流的明星大學還有距離,但也不至於到較後段的學校。在這情況下,進中段的大學,可能面臨大學師資不夠好,同學大家輕鬆玩四年的可能性很大。進一流的科大,可能在同儕的競爭壓力下,發憤圖強,從大學就開始為就業鋪路,是個不錯的選擇。
以一個普通高中考進科大,在科大裡面將會是少數民族,就像以前我們在大學裡面,從外校轉學進來的新同學,總是有些隔閡。我說的是一般現象,有些小孩很活潑的,或是很自我的,那都另當別論。尤其,成績中上的高中生,高中三年的訓練,比較多語文能力和數理能力,和高職體系對專業科目(工科或商科)的提早接觸,有些差距。在科大裡面,遇到喜歡研究性的老師,高中生比較吃香,對碰到外國語文或數理分析,高中生也吃香。但是對於喜歡實作性的老師,嚴格要求製圖,實驗或是做模型,這對高中生畢業的學生比較吃虧。

有些科大,從一年級暑假就開始實習,到工廠或企業作業單位實習,他們接觸的大多是“實作”而非企劃或創意的工作,這些實作的經驗,有助於未來畢業後,從事後勤或是生產等第一線的作業。就保障就業能力,或是培養實做能力,確實很有幫助。

科大的社團活動,就看同學的玩樂氣氛。比較精英的科大,重視證照的考取與實務經驗的累積,勝於對社團玩樂的追求。大學玩四年或是兢兢業業學四年,各有利弊。

物以類聚,在什麼樣的環境,可以接觸到什麼樣的同學與師長,這些潛移默化的經驗與思考,都會跟隨小孩子很長一段時間。年輕時候要結交的朋友,有些是一輩子的朋友。如果,同學間很多都很勢利眼,很多汲汲營營與財富,很多整天玩樂,很多吸毒抽煙,很多滿腦子鬼點子卻眼高手低,很多窮酸,很多富家公子哥,各種不同的條件,都會造就小孩子不同的價值觀。

念科大的學生有一條平均線,念一流大學的學生是另一條平均線,念不同大學的學生有不同的平均線。總有人可以舉出例外,在科大畢業後完全遠離這條平均線,或是一流大學學生卻偏離很遠,但大多數人,就是落在那個平均線附近。

每條平均線都有它的價值,也有他的甘苦,只是,需要先想清楚,才不會因為做錯決定再回頭而浪費青春或無法回頭而後悔。

4/09/2015

電影-大眼睛BIG EYES

今晚欣賞這部電影,唯一的感覺就是無用說謊的男人,與單純忍讓的女人。也許時空背景是在那個男性沙文主義的時代,造就這樣靠耍嘴皮子就能不勞而獲的男人。真悲哀。

故事發生在1950年代的舊金山與1965年代的夏威夷,看到這些景色,都好生懷念,金門大橋,斜坡的舊金山街道,威基奇海灘,鑽石山,檀香山法院,看電影順便回味風景。

本片改編自真實故事,描述1950年代知名畫家瑪格麗特基恩 (艾美亞當斯 飾)第一個婚姻失敗,來到舊金山。在傢俱工程畫畫及到週末廣場幫人現場寫生,生活困難。巧遇另一位賣畫的華特,華特騙瑪格麗特說自己留學法國,到處作畫,也可以幫他把畫畫賣出去。果然,華特叫瑪格麗特把畫上署名KEANE,有他去賣。畫作的特殊性吸引許多企業家與婦女,華特設法結交上流社會與官員,把事業愈做愈大。兩人結婚後,瑪格麗特與丈夫華特基恩(克里斯多夫華茲 飾)鶼鰈情深,並且共同經營與分享繪畫事業,她躲在房間作畫,卻把功勞都歸給老公。願意讓丈夫沃特在每一幅由瑪格莉特創作的作品上冠名。

有段時間瑪格麗特想要自己改變作風,卻被華特威脅殺掉她。並勉強瑪格麗特繼續一成不變的畫大眼睛的流浪兒。這個題材已經超爛了,但華特並不覺醒。瑪格麗特也拒絕把新的畫風的作品冠上KEANE的名字, 而是冠上MDH KEANE的名字。這事使雙方開始芥蒂。但是華特讓家庭生活變得非常富裕,這對瑪格麗特也是捨不得離開的原因。

但好景不常,兩人如日中天的事業,因為1965世界博覽會在舊金山,華特原本要把巨畫掛到教育廳,卻被當地報社記者中傷,然後原本要一舉成名卻變成,聲明狼藉。華特愛面子因這事情夫妻失和的感情而瓦解,甚至要放火燒死他們母女。

瑪格莉特毅然決然地選擇逃離魔掌,跑到夏威夷;華特陰魂不散,要求繼續幫他畫100幅新作。但瑪格決定掀開一切,告上法庭對簿公堂,華特的三寸不爛之舌仍佔上風,後來法官判定兩人現場作畫,讓瑪格勇敢奪回屬於自己的畫作與名聲。

華特後來2000年死於貧窮,瑪格則回到舊金山繼續作畫開畫廊。

呼應史記李斯列傳的故事, 與虎謀皮必死,為虎作倀必死,與小人共同合作只會自食惡果。碰到小人,及早離開的遠遠的,不要捨不得,拖越久對自己傷害越大。



4/08/2015

電影:星際效應

這部片子,利用數十年的時間軸,以及外太空的時空,突顕人生的渺小。不可免俗的,帥哥美女,壞人謊言,好人不死,荒謬情節,美好結局。

從農作物因氣候轉變和疾病而經常欠收的時代,地球已不能居住。主角庫珀(Cooper)本為NASA駕駛員,他和十歲女兒墨菲(Murphy)及兒子居住。有天發現沙塵在房間中留下了通訊碼,二人驅車到達一個NASA秘密基地,領導人為布蘭德教授(Brand)。

布蘭德表示他們在土星系發現一個3D曲徑,可到達另一遙遠的星系。NASA幾十年來執行(Lazarus Missions),派遣了12名科學家搭載探測器穿越3D蟲洞降落在12個行星。傳回的資料顯示巨人(Gargantua)為中心的恆星系統有三顆星球可能適合殖民,並以降落該行星上的科學家名字命名它們:米勒(Miller)、艾德蒙斯(Edmunds)和曼恩(Mann)。

庫珀擔任太空船永續號(Endurance)的駕駛員前往該三個星球。有2個計畫:A計畫是讓地球人類能在確定適合移居後遷移;B計畫是帶著多個人類胚胎讓人類能在另一星球殖民。

庫珀與教授女兒艾米莉亞(Amelia)、物理學家羅米利(Romilly)、地質學家道爾(Doyle)和兩具機器人塔斯(TARS)和凱斯(CASE)進入太空登上永續號展開旅程。

永續號先到達米勒星,庫珀、艾米莉亞和道爾乘坐飛艇降落星球。發現米勒星只有一片汪洋且經常出現巨型海潚。艾米莉亞欲取回記錄器,導致道爾被海嘯吞噬,飛艇亦因進水延誤起飛,二人回永續號後,已渡過了23年的時間。

這時,墨菲33歲,加入NASA協助布蘭德教授解開重力方程式,教授瀕死透露真相A計畫不可能實現。

庫柏他們來到曼恩星球,喚醒科學家曼恩,曼恩說出這星球不宜居住,他造假數據是希望NASA能派人來救他。曼恩要害死庫珀,拋下他乘坐飛艇離開。羅米利被曼恩的陷阱引發爆炸身亡。庫珀在窒息前被艾米莉亞所救,二人乘坐另一飛艇和曼恩搶對接永續號離開這星球。永續號被曼恩破壞了,但最後兩人成功接上。

永續號不足以返回地球,庫珀和艾米莉亞決定把永續號駛往「巨人」艾德蒙斯星實行B計畫。讓艾米莉亞安全繁衍,庫珀讓自己的飛艇於耗盡燃料後進入一個時間並非線性流動的五維空間。

原來庫珀正返回墨菲10歲,傳送訊息給他,留下STAY信號,庫珀眼睜睜的看著自己告別女兒的場景。庫柏穿越時空,傳遞信息叫10歲女兒和他去NASA。庫柏透過手錶傳給40歲的女兒解布蘭德教授的方程式,經過多年終於讓人類得以離開地球。

庫珀被NASA在土星軌道上的庫珀太空站人員所救;他已離開地球91年,已是124歲。這太空站是紀念他女兒的功勞而命名。庫珀與墨菲重逢,但墨菲100歲即將過世,而庫柏卻保持年輕體貌。建議他前往艾德蒙斯尋找艾米莉亞。他偷走一台飛艇開往艾德蒙斯-誇張的是這趟太空旅程竟是一台飛艇可完成的。艾米莉亞穿著太空衣在那星球上孤單等待,背景是一些燈光建築,腳下是艾德蒙斯的墳墓,故事到此結束。

布蘭德讓他女兒上太空,是為了女兒的生命的活下去,結果是父女分開。庫珀和女兒分開獨自上太空,是為了人類,父女分開,前撲後續為人類努力。有趣的對比。


4/07/2015

TEDx97A 演講會

一,方新舟(誠致基金會董事長) 分享他近幾年社會公益回饋的故事。
(1)新住民的外婆橋(基金會出資邀請新住民的教師回到新住民的外婆家去居住3個月,讓台灣的老師去體驗新住民心情與離家的孤獨感,透過這過程讓老師能夠感同身受。每年招待1~4位老師。但老師參與者少。)
(2)均一教育平台(類似可汗學院,提供線上的偏鄉小孩的課程,拉近城鄉差距,目前課程仍然免費)
(3)翻轉教育(改變這個社會要從教育開始,而最大的挑戰是改變老師的心態與生態,同時要注意到老師們關心的利益,以及任何課程調整過程中對老師間的利益的衝突。)
(4)他主張小政府大民間, 但是他最大的挑戰是基金會的預算,短缺的資金是他的困難,但他並不想從網站收費,也不想要透過募款,他還在思索。

二,瑋瑛介紹它的公司以及他過去1~2年所做的努力;ANDARI公司是由三位女人annie, danna,rita 合開的公司, 1996年成立迄今已經28年,走得是傳統企業,卻不斷進步要追求時尚。他過去1年多時間對公司的策略,組織文化做了許多改變,包刮人事方面引進年輕人,包刮做法上更符合時代潮流,並乘在觀光及文創之趨勢,開發許多新機會。他在2012年發生人生重大的轉變,他也在生活上做出改變,包括每年去跑步,包括學會繪畫,妝點自己的人生。

三,健理談中古車變新車,他先強調balance, 每個人原本都是平衡的, 包括(1)人身原本是結構上全衡系統(人卻有些姿勢等上不平mechanical),(2)心智上應平衡去放鬆(人卻欲望不滿足 spiratual),(3)人和人際環境的平衡(但許多人與家人/同事/朋友不和,造成情緒上失調 human relation)。
他提出一個觀念:成功的老去successful aging program.  也就是如何確保晚年身體健康?
他認為不平衡帶來酸痛, 痠痛很多時候,未必是外顯的現象, 而是底層的原因。他提出解決方案,就是要從degeneration (退化)到regeneration(再生)。再生的方法,不再依賴自體再成長的方式,而是借助醫療協助。(1)醫生提供一些日常生活可以改變的方式, 積極的調整,而不是被動的休息,(2)功能性醫學,不是治標性的打擊病狀,而是照到根本原因,從根本改善,(3)復健的做法,就是把把緊的放鬆,把鬆的拉緊。例如乾氏針灸,按摩是把緊繃的筋脈打開, 有些注射則是把鬆弛的肌肉纖維讓他們再生而拉緊。他擅長用玻尿酸hyaluronate injection注射, PRP(自體血液注射,一針1.5萬),糖水注射等。他還在研究一種新技術, 透過超音波看到神經繃緊的狀況,然後注射,鬆弛神經, 這叫Nerve hydrodissection 神經解套注射。

四,比爾是很會講話的修行者。他的人生非常傳奇。
他少年得志,加入多普達就賺了不少錢,在宏達電也很受重用, 升到很高的官位,擔任董事。2008年,他累積的財富很多投入在認股權證上,卻一夕虧錢賠光,那時候,他突然頓悟, 也突然覺得輕鬆,不必再為權證的價格起起落落而擔心。2012年他被指派為董事,但他卻不能直接主導業務發展,讓他覺得工作並非所要就離開,他喜歡投資,他向銀行貸款投資一個小公司,然後就在短短1年內讓他的財富翻倍,然後他就獲利了結。他拿錢去買保時捷汽車,買了這台汽車,他開在路上怕別人異樣看,卻又希望別人羨慕,他開去賽車場,怕撞到別台破車,他頓悟,為何要買一台高級的車來讓自己擔心?於是就把車賣了。他想人生的意義在那?2014年,他開發了一個app:一起出來玩。他花了點時間介紹這支app, 如何邀請朋友參加活動,朋友可以在app直接用信用卡付費,還可以互相分享活動內容及關注其他好友的活動。他跟著年輕人攪和, 他也為了如何推廣,設想許多行銷手法。他每月大概燒1百萬元的行銷費,鼓勵會員來參與活動並且吸引朋友,他在粉絲團建立一個測試團,透過社群來給他建議,他和一些軟體怪咖合作,他們幫他寫程式修改程式,這些怪咖並不是為了錢而來的,是為了個人的興趣與利益。他講的很快,但我年紀超過他設定的38歲,所以我聽不太懂!比爾很幽默,他常跟鬼神菩薩聊天,她開玩笑說他問過龍山寺的菩薩,菩薩告訴他,你做app像蓋廟,會來求你的絕不是主要的收入來源,會捐獻很多錢的,往往是那些原本就不需要來求你的人。就像我們人生的福田,不確定今天播種的,會在哪裏開花結果,不要強求,多做善事,總會有善果。

今天的演講會,是我們班上同學畢業四年後,再回到班上相聚的第一次。這次的形式,不同過去四年大家在餐廳吃飯喝酒唱KTV,吃便當聽聽同學的事業或人生心得,也是不錯的方式!