3/31/2018
中華電信健康雲服務
https://www.bnext.com.tw/article/48664/chief-telecom-and-ibm-launch-ai-health-cloud-platform-specializing-in-chinese-health-management
中華電信關係企業是方電訊今（29）日宣布，將結盟IBM、穿戴式廠商研鼎智能（GOLiFE）和資策會等，打造亞太區首創的「華人智慧健康雲」，該物聯網服務運用IBM的雲端平台，進行健康資訊建模，再儲存到是方電訊的國產雲端資料庫，透過新創公司health inventor的多維度智慧健康引擎，持續進行數據分析，藉此提供全方位的健康促進管理服務，預計今年第4季正式商轉。
翻轉幸福 HD中文正式電影預告
I watch this for the second time. It is wonderful!
she can endure and scarify for her family. She has a good heart.
She can insist till the success.
She can be strong enough to fight with the liar and got back her money.
Wonderful!
3/30/2018
原則 Ray Dalio work 16
16 And for Heaven’s Sake, Don’t Overlook Governance!
16.1 To be successful, all organizations must have checks and balances.
a. Even in an idea meritocracy, merit cannot be the only determining factor in assigning responsibility and authority.
b. Make sure that no one is more powerful than the system or so important that they are irreplaceable.
c. Beware of efdoms.
d. Make clear that the organization’s structure and rules
are designed to ensure that its checks-and-balances system
functions well.
e. Make sure reporting lines are clear.
f. Make sure decision rights are clear.
g. Make sure that the people doing the assessing 1) have the
time to be fully informed about how the person they are checking on is doing, 2) have the ability to make the assessments, and 3) are not in a con ict of interest that stands in the way of carrying out oversight e ectively.
h. Recognize that decision makers must have access to the information necessary to make decisions and must be trustworthy enough to handle that information safely.
16.2 Remember that in an idea meritocracy a single CEO is not as good as a great group of leaders.
16.3 No governance system of principles, rules, and checks and balances can substitute for a great partnership.
16.1 To be successful, all organizations must have checks and balances.
a. Even in an idea meritocracy, merit cannot be the only determining factor in assigning responsibility and authority.
b. Make sure that no one is more powerful than the system or so important that they are irreplaceable.
c. Beware of efdoms.
d. Make clear that the organization’s structure and rules
are designed to ensure that its checks-and-balances system
functions well.
e. Make sure reporting lines are clear.
f. Make sure decision rights are clear.
g. Make sure that the people doing the assessing 1) have the
time to be fully informed about how the person they are checking on is doing, 2) have the ability to make the assessments, and 3) are not in a con ict of interest that stands in the way of carrying out oversight e ectively.
h. Recognize that decision makers must have access to the information necessary to make decisions and must be trustworthy enough to handle that information safely.
16.2 Remember that in an idea meritocracy a single CEO is not as good as a great group of leaders.
16.3 No governance system of principles, rules, and checks and balances can substitute for a great partnership.
原則 Ray Dalio work 14 &15
14 Do What You Set Out to Do
14.1 Work for goals that you and your organization are excited about and think about how your tasks connect to those goals.
a. Be coordinated and consistent in motivating others.
b. Don’t act before thinking. Take the time to come up with
a game plan.
c. Look for creative, cut-through solutions.
14.2 Recognize that everyone has too much to do.
a. Don’t get frustrated.
14.3 Use checklists.
a. Don’t confuse checklists with personal responsibility.
14.4 Allow time for rest and renovation.
14.5 Ring the bell.
15 Use Tools and Protocols to Shape How Work Is Done
15.1 Having systemized principles embedded in tools is especially valuable for an idea meritocracy.
a. To produce real behavioral change, understand that there
must be internalized or habitualized learning.
b. Use tools to collect data and process it into conclusions
and actions.
c. Foster an environment of con dence and fairness by having
clearly-stated principles that are implemented in tools and protocols so that the conclusions reached can be assessed by tracking the logic and data behind them.
14.1 Work for goals that you and your organization are excited about and think about how your tasks connect to those goals.
a. Be coordinated and consistent in motivating others.
b. Don’t act before thinking. Take the time to come up with
a game plan.
c. Look for creative, cut-through solutions.
14.2 Recognize that everyone has too much to do.
a. Don’t get frustrated.
14.3 Use checklists.
a. Don’t confuse checklists with personal responsibility.
14.4 Allow time for rest and renovation.
14.5 Ring the bell.
15 Use Tools and Protocols to Shape How Work Is Done
15.1 Having systemized principles embedded in tools is especially valuable for an idea meritocracy.
a. To produce real behavioral change, understand that there
must be internalized or habitualized learning.
b. Use tools to collect data and process it into conclusions
and actions.
c. Foster an environment of con dence and fairness by having
clearly-stated principles that are implemented in tools and protocols so that the conclusions reached can be assessed by tracking the logic and data behind them.
原則 Ray Dalio work 13
13 Design Improvements to Your Machine to Get Around Your Problems
13.1 Build your machine.
13.2 Systemize your principles and how they will be implemented.
a. Create great decision-making machines by thinking through
the criteria you are using to make decisions while you are making them.
13.3 Remember that a good plan should resemble a movie script.
a. Put yourself in the position of pain for a while so that you
gain a richer understanding of what you’re designing for.
b. Visualize alternative machines and their outcomes, and then
choose
c. Consider second- and third-order consequences, not just rst-order ones.
d. Use standing meetings to help your organization run like a Swiss clock.
e. Remember that a good machine takes into account the fact that people are imperfect.
13.4 Recognize that design is an iterative process. Between a bad “now” and a good “then” is a “working through it” period.
a. Understand the power of the “cleansing storm.”
13.5 Build the organization around goals rather than tasks.
a. Build your organization from the top down.
b. Remember that everyone must be overseen by a believable
person who has high standards.
c. Make sure the people at the top of each pyramid have the
skills and focus to manage their direct reports and a deep
understanding of their jobs.
d. In designing your organization, remember that the 5-Step
Process is the path to success and that di erent people
are good at di erent steps.
e. Don’t build the organization to t the people.
f. Keep scale in mind.
g. Organize departments and sub-departments around the
most logical groupings based on “gravitational pull.”
h. Make departments as self-su cient as possible so that they
have control over the resources they need to achieve their
goals.
i. Ensure that the ratios of senior managers to junior managers
and of junior managers to their reports are limited to preserve
quality communication and mutual understanding.
j. Consider succession and training in your design.
k. Don’t just pay attention to your job; pay attention to how your job will be done if you are no longer around.
l. Use “double-do” rather than “double-check” to make sure mission-critical tasks are done correctly.
m. Use consultants wisely and watch out for consultant addiction.
13.6 Create an organizational chart to look like a pyramid, with straight lines down that don’t cross.
a. Involve the person who is the point of the pyramid when
encountering cross-departmental or cross-sub-departmental
issues.
b. Don’t do work for people in another department or grab
people from another department to do work for you unless you speak to the person responsible for overseeing the other department.
c. Watch out for “department slip.”
13.7 Create guardrails when needed—and remember it’s better not to guardrail at all.
a. Don’t expect people to recognize and compensate for their own blind spots.
b. Consider the clover-leaf design.
13.8 Keep your strategic vision the same while making appropriate tactical changes as circumstances dictate.
a. Don’t put the expedient ahead of the strategic.
b. ink about both the big picture and the granular details,
and understand the connections between them.
13.9 Have good controls so that you are not exposed to the dishonesty of others.
a. Investigate and let people know you are going to investigate.
b. Remember that there is no sense in having laws unless you
have policemen (auditors).
c. Beware of rubber-stamping.
d. Recognize that people who make purchases on your behalf
probably will not spend your money wisely.
e. Use “public hangings” to deter bad behavior.
13.10 Have the clearest possible reporting lines and delineations of responsibilities.
a. Assign responsibilities based on work ow design and people’s abilities, not job titles.
b. Constantly think about how to produce leverage.
c. Recognize that it is far better to nd a few smart people
and give them the best technology than to have a greater
number of ordinary people who are less well equipped.
d. Use leveragers.
13.11 Remember that almost everything will take more time and cost more money than you expect.
13.1 Build your machine.
13.2 Systemize your principles and how they will be implemented.
a. Create great decision-making machines by thinking through
the criteria you are using to make decisions while you are making them.
13.3 Remember that a good plan should resemble a movie script.
a. Put yourself in the position of pain for a while so that you
gain a richer understanding of what you’re designing for.
b. Visualize alternative machines and their outcomes, and then
choose
c. Consider second- and third-order consequences, not just rst-order ones.
d. Use standing meetings to help your organization run like a Swiss clock.
e. Remember that a good machine takes into account the fact that people are imperfect.
13.4 Recognize that design is an iterative process. Between a bad “now” and a good “then” is a “working through it” period.
a. Understand the power of the “cleansing storm.”
13.5 Build the organization around goals rather than tasks.
a. Build your organization from the top down.
b. Remember that everyone must be overseen by a believable
person who has high standards.
c. Make sure the people at the top of each pyramid have the
skills and focus to manage their direct reports and a deep
understanding of their jobs.
d. In designing your organization, remember that the 5-Step
Process is the path to success and that di erent people
are good at di erent steps.
e. Don’t build the organization to t the people.
f. Keep scale in mind.
g. Organize departments and sub-departments around the
most logical groupings based on “gravitational pull.”
h. Make departments as self-su cient as possible so that they
have control over the resources they need to achieve their
goals.
i. Ensure that the ratios of senior managers to junior managers
and of junior managers to their reports are limited to preserve
quality communication and mutual understanding.
j. Consider succession and training in your design.
k. Don’t just pay attention to your job; pay attention to how your job will be done if you are no longer around.
l. Use “double-do” rather than “double-check” to make sure mission-critical tasks are done correctly.
m. Use consultants wisely and watch out for consultant addiction.
13.6 Create an organizational chart to look like a pyramid, with straight lines down that don’t cross.
a. Involve the person who is the point of the pyramid when
encountering cross-departmental or cross-sub-departmental
issues.
b. Don’t do work for people in another department or grab
people from another department to do work for you unless you speak to the person responsible for overseeing the other department.
c. Watch out for “department slip.”
13.7 Create guardrails when needed—and remember it’s better not to guardrail at all.
a. Don’t expect people to recognize and compensate for their own blind spots.
b. Consider the clover-leaf design.
13.8 Keep your strategic vision the same while making appropriate tactical changes as circumstances dictate.
a. Don’t put the expedient ahead of the strategic.
b. ink about both the big picture and the granular details,
and understand the connections between them.
13.9 Have good controls so that you are not exposed to the dishonesty of others.
a. Investigate and let people know you are going to investigate.
b. Remember that there is no sense in having laws unless you
have policemen (auditors).
c. Beware of rubber-stamping.
d. Recognize that people who make purchases on your behalf
probably will not spend your money wisely.
e. Use “public hangings” to deter bad behavior.
13.10 Have the clearest possible reporting lines and delineations of responsibilities.
a. Assign responsibilities based on work ow design and people’s abilities, not job titles.
b. Constantly think about how to produce leverage.
c. Recognize that it is far better to nd a few smart people
and give them the best technology than to have a greater
number of ordinary people who are less well equipped.
d. Use leveragers.
13.11 Remember that almost everything will take more time and cost more money than you expect.
原則 Ray Dalio work 11 &12
11 Perceive and Don’t Tolerate Problems
11.1 If you’re not worried, you need to worry—and if you’re worried, you don’t need to worry.
11.2 Design and oversee a machine to perceive whether things are good enough or not good enough, or do it yourself.
a. Assign people the job of perceiving problems, give them
time to investigate, and make sure they have independent reporting lines so that they can convey problems without any fear of recrimination.
b. Watch out for the “Frog in the Boiling Water Syndrome.”
c. Beware of group-think: e fact that no one seems
concerned doesn’t mean nothing is wrong.
d. To perceive problems, compare how the outcomes are
lining up with your goals.
e. “Taste the soup.”
f. Have as many eyes looking for problems as possible.
g. “Pop the cork.”
h. Realize that the people closest to certain jobs probably know them best.
11.3 Be very speci c about problems; don’t start with generalizations. a. Avoid the anonymous “we” and “they,” because they mask personal responsibility.
11.4 Don’t be afraid to x the dif cult things.
a. Understand that problems with good, planned solutions in place are completely di erent from those without such solutions.
b. ink of the problems you perceive in a machinelike way.
12 Diagnose Problems to Get at Their Root Causes
12.1 To diagnose well, ask the following questions: 1. Is the outcome good or bad? 2. Who is responsible for the outcome? 3. If the outcome is bad, is the Responsible Party incapable and/or is the design bad?
a. Ask yourself: “Who should do what di erently?”
b. Identify at which step in the 5-Step Process the failure
occurred.
c. Identify the principles that were violated.
d. Avoid Monday morning quarterbacking.
e. Don’t confuse the quality of someone’s circumstances
with the quality of their approach to dealing with the
circumstances.
f. Identifying the fact that someone else doesn’t know what
to do doesn’t mean that you know what to do.
g. Remember that a root cause is not an action but a reason.
h. To distinguish between a capacity issue and a capability
issue, imagine how the person would perform at that
particular function if they had ample capacity.
i. Keep in mind that managers usually fail or fall short of
their goals for one (or more) of ve reasons.
12.2 Maintain an emerging synthesis by diagnosing continuously.
12.3 Keep in mind that diagnoses should produce outcomes.
a. Remember that if you have the same people doing the same things, you should expect the same results.
12.4 Use the following “drill-down” technique to gain an 80/20 understanding of a department or sub-department that is having problems.
12.5 Understand that diagnosis is foundational to both progress and quality relationships.
11.1 If you’re not worried, you need to worry—and if you’re worried, you don’t need to worry.
11.2 Design and oversee a machine to perceive whether things are good enough or not good enough, or do it yourself.
a. Assign people the job of perceiving problems, give them
time to investigate, and make sure they have independent reporting lines so that they can convey problems without any fear of recrimination.
b. Watch out for the “Frog in the Boiling Water Syndrome.”
c. Beware of group-think: e fact that no one seems
concerned doesn’t mean nothing is wrong.
d. To perceive problems, compare how the outcomes are
lining up with your goals.
e. “Taste the soup.”
f. Have as many eyes looking for problems as possible.
g. “Pop the cork.”
h. Realize that the people closest to certain jobs probably know them best.
11.3 Be very speci c about problems; don’t start with generalizations. a. Avoid the anonymous “we” and “they,” because they mask personal responsibility.
11.4 Don’t be afraid to x the dif cult things.
a. Understand that problems with good, planned solutions in place are completely di erent from those without such solutions.
b. ink of the problems you perceive in a machinelike way.
12 Diagnose Problems to Get at Their Root Causes
12.1 To diagnose well, ask the following questions: 1. Is the outcome good or bad? 2. Who is responsible for the outcome? 3. If the outcome is bad, is the Responsible Party incapable and/or is the design bad?
a. Ask yourself: “Who should do what di erently?”
b. Identify at which step in the 5-Step Process the failure
occurred.
c. Identify the principles that were violated.
d. Avoid Monday morning quarterbacking.
e. Don’t confuse the quality of someone’s circumstances
with the quality of their approach to dealing with the
circumstances.
f. Identifying the fact that someone else doesn’t know what
to do doesn’t mean that you know what to do.
g. Remember that a root cause is not an action but a reason.
h. To distinguish between a capacity issue and a capability
issue, imagine how the person would perform at that
particular function if they had ample capacity.
i. Keep in mind that managers usually fail or fall short of
their goals for one (or more) of ve reasons.
12.2 Maintain an emerging synthesis by diagnosing continuously.
12.3 Keep in mind that diagnoses should produce outcomes.
a. Remember that if you have the same people doing the same things, you should expect the same results.
12.4 Use the following “drill-down” technique to gain an 80/20 understanding of a department or sub-department that is having problems.
12.5 Understand that diagnosis is foundational to both progress and quality relationships.
原則 Ray Dalio work 10
TO BUILD AND EVOLVE YOUR MACHINE . .
10 Manage as Someone Operating a Machine to Achieve a Goal
10.1 Look down on your machine and yourself within it from the higher level.
a. Constantly compare your outcomes to your goals.
b. Understand that a great manager is essentially an
organizational engineer.
c. Build great metrics.
d. Beware of paying too much attention to what is coming at
you and not enough attention to your machine.
e. Don’t get distracted by shiny objects.
10.2 Remember that for every case you deal with, your approach should have two purposes: 1) to move you closer to your goal, and 2) to train and test your machine (i.e., your people and your design).
a. Everything is a case study.
b. When a problem occurs, conduct the discussion at two levels:
1) the machine level (why that outcome was produced) and
2) the case-at-hand level (what to do about it).
c. When making rules, explain the principles behind them.
d. Your policies should be natural extensions of your principles.
e. While good principles and policies almost always provide
good guidance, remember that there are exceptions to every rule.
10.3 Understand the differences between managing, micromanaging, and not managing.
a. Managers must make sure that what they are responsible
for works well.
b. Managing the people who report to you should feel like
skiing together.
c. An excellent skier is probably going to be a better ski coach
than a novice skier.
d. You should be able to delegate the details.
10.4 Know what your people are like and what makes them tick, because your people are your most important resource.
a. Regularly take the temperature of each person who is
important to you and to the organization.
b. Learn how much con dence to have in your people—don’t
assume it.
c. Vary your involvement based on your con dence.
10.5 Clearly assign responsibilities.
a. Remember who has what responsibilities.
b. Watch out for “job slip.”
10.6 Probe deep and hard to learn what you can expect from your machine.
a. Get a threshold level of understanding.
b. Avoid staying too distant.
c. Use daily updates as a tool for staying on top of what your
people are doing and thinking.
d. Probe so you know whether problems are likely to occur
before they actually do.
e. Probe to the level below the people who report to you.
f. Have the people who report to the people who report to you feel free to escalate their problems to you.
g. Don’t assume that people’s answers are correct.
h. Train your ear.
i. Make your probing transparent rather than private.
j. Welcome probing.
k. Remember that people who see things and think one way
often have di culty communicating with and relating to
people who see things and think another way.
l. Pull all suspicious threads.
m. Recognize that there are many ways to skin a cat.
10.7 Think like an owner, and expect the people you work with to
do the same.
a. Going on vacation doesn’t mean one can neglect one’s responsibilities.
b. Force yourself and the people who work for you to do di cult things.
10.8 Recognize and deal with key-man risk.
10.9 Don’t treat everyone the same—treat them appropriately.
a. Don’t let yourself get squeezed.
b. Care about the people who work for you.
10.10 Know that great leadership is generally not what it’s made out to be.
a. Be weak and strong at the same time.
b. Don’t worry about whether or not your people like you and
don’t look to them to tell you what you should do.
c. Don’t give orders and try to be followed; try to be understood
and to understand others by getting in sync.
10.11 Hold yourself and your people accountable and appreciate them for holding you accountable.
a. If you’ve agreed with someone that something is supposed
to go a certain way, make sure it goes that way—unless you get in sync about doing it di erently.
b. Distinguish between a failure in which someone broke their “contract” and a failure in which there was no contract to begin with.
c. Avoid getting sucked down.
d. Watch out for people who confuse goals and tasks, because
if they can’t make that distinction, you can’t trust them with
responsibilities.
e. Watch out for the unfocused and unproductive “theoretical
should.”
10.12 Communicate the plan clearly and have clear metrics conveying whether you are progressing according to it. a. Put things in perspective by going back before going
forward.
10.13 Escalate when you can’t adequately handle your responsibilities and make sure that the people who work for you are proactive about doing the same.
10 Manage as Someone Operating a Machine to Achieve a Goal
10.1 Look down on your machine and yourself within it from the higher level.
a. Constantly compare your outcomes to your goals.
b. Understand that a great manager is essentially an
organizational engineer.
c. Build great metrics.
d. Beware of paying too much attention to what is coming at
you and not enough attention to your machine.
e. Don’t get distracted by shiny objects.
10.2 Remember that for every case you deal with, your approach should have two purposes: 1) to move you closer to your goal, and 2) to train and test your machine (i.e., your people and your design).
a. Everything is a case study.
b. When a problem occurs, conduct the discussion at two levels:
1) the machine level (why that outcome was produced) and
2) the case-at-hand level (what to do about it).
c. When making rules, explain the principles behind them.
d. Your policies should be natural extensions of your principles.
e. While good principles and policies almost always provide
good guidance, remember that there are exceptions to every rule.
10.3 Understand the differences between managing, micromanaging, and not managing.
a. Managers must make sure that what they are responsible
for works well.
b. Managing the people who report to you should feel like
skiing together.
c. An excellent skier is probably going to be a better ski coach
than a novice skier.
d. You should be able to delegate the details.
10.4 Know what your people are like and what makes them tick, because your people are your most important resource.
a. Regularly take the temperature of each person who is
important to you and to the organization.
b. Learn how much con dence to have in your people—don’t
assume it.
c. Vary your involvement based on your con dence.
10.5 Clearly assign responsibilities.
a. Remember who has what responsibilities.
b. Watch out for “job slip.”
10.6 Probe deep and hard to learn what you can expect from your machine.
a. Get a threshold level of understanding.
b. Avoid staying too distant.
c. Use daily updates as a tool for staying on top of what your
people are doing and thinking.
d. Probe so you know whether problems are likely to occur
before they actually do.
e. Probe to the level below the people who report to you.
f. Have the people who report to the people who report to you feel free to escalate their problems to you.
g. Don’t assume that people’s answers are correct.
h. Train your ear.
i. Make your probing transparent rather than private.
j. Welcome probing.
k. Remember that people who see things and think one way
often have di culty communicating with and relating to
people who see things and think another way.
l. Pull all suspicious threads.
m. Recognize that there are many ways to skin a cat.
10.7 Think like an owner, and expect the people you work with to
do the same.
a. Going on vacation doesn’t mean one can neglect one’s responsibilities.
b. Force yourself and the people who work for you to do di cult things.
10.8 Recognize and deal with key-man risk.
10.9 Don’t treat everyone the same—treat them appropriately.
a. Don’t let yourself get squeezed.
b. Care about the people who work for you.
10.10 Know that great leadership is generally not what it’s made out to be.
a. Be weak and strong at the same time.
b. Don’t worry about whether or not your people like you and
don’t look to them to tell you what you should do.
c. Don’t give orders and try to be followed; try to be understood
and to understand others by getting in sync.
10.11 Hold yourself and your people accountable and appreciate them for holding you accountable.
a. If you’ve agreed with someone that something is supposed
to go a certain way, make sure it goes that way—unless you get in sync about doing it di erently.
b. Distinguish between a failure in which someone broke their “contract” and a failure in which there was no contract to begin with.
c. Avoid getting sucked down.
d. Watch out for people who confuse goals and tasks, because
if they can’t make that distinction, you can’t trust them with
responsibilities.
e. Watch out for the unfocused and unproductive “theoretical
should.”
10.12 Communicate the plan clearly and have clear metrics conveying whether you are progressing according to it. a. Put things in perspective by going back before going
forward.
10.13 Escalate when you can’t adequately handle your responsibilities and make sure that the people who work for you are proactive about doing the same.
原則 Ray Dalio work 9
9 Constantly Train, Test, Evaluate, and Sort People
9.1 Understand that you and the people you manage will go through a process of personal evolution.
a. Recognize that personal evolution should be relatively rapid and a natural consequence of discovering one’s strengths and
weaknesses; as a result, career paths are not planned at the
outset.
b. Understand that training guides the process of personal
evolution.
c. Teach your people to sh rather than give them sh, even if
that means letting them make some mistakes.
d. Recognize that experience creates internalized learning that
book learning can’t replace.
9.2 Provide constant feedback.
9.3 Evaluate accurately, not kindly.
a. In the end, accuracy and kindness are the same thing.
b. Put your compliments and criticisms in perspective.
c. ink about accuracy, not implications.
d. Make accurate assessments.
e. Learn from success as well as from failure.
f. Know that most everyone thinks that what they did, and
what they are doing, is much more important than it really is.
9.4 Recognize that tough love is both the hardest and the most important type of love to give (because it is so rarely welcomed).
a. Recognize that while most people prefer compliments,
accurate criticism is more valuable.
9.5 Don’t hide your observations about people.
a. Build your synthesis from the speci cs up.
b. Squeeze the dots.
c. Don’t oversqueeze a dot.
d. Use evaluation tools such as performance surveys, metrics, and formal reviews to document all aspects of a person’s performance.
9.6 Make the process of learning what someone is like open, evolutionary, and iterative.
a. Make your metrics clear and impartial.
b. Encourage people to be objectively re ective about their
performance.
c. Look at the whole picture.
d. For performance reviews, start from speci c cases, look
for patterns, and get in sync with the person being reviewed
by looking at the evidence together.
e. Remember that when it comes to assessing people, the two
biggest mistakes you can make are being overcon dent in
your assessment and failing to get in sync on it.
f. Get in sync on assessments in a nonhierarchical way.
g. Learn about your people and have them learn about you through frank conversations about mistakes and their root causes.
h. Understand that making sure people are doing a good job doesn’t require watching everything that everybody is doing at all times.
i. Recognize that change is di cult.
j. Help people through the pain that comes with exploring
their weaknesses.
9.7 Knowing how people operate and being able to judge whether that way of operating will lead to good results is more important than knowing what they did.
a. If someone is doing their job poorly, consider whether it is
due to inadequate learning or inadequate ability.
b. Training and testing a poor performer to see if he or she can acquire the required skills without simultaneously trying to
assess their abilities is a common mistake.
9.8 Recognize that when you are really in sync with someone about their weaknesses, the weaknesses are probably true.
a. When judging people, remember that you don’t have to get
to the point of “beyond a shadow of a doubt.”
b. It should take you no more than a year to learn what a
person is like and whether they are a click for their job.
c. Continue assessing people throughout their tenure.
d. Evaluate employees with the same rigor as you evaluate
job candidates.
9.9 Train, guardrail, or remove people; don’t rehabilitate them.
a. Don’t collect people.
b. Be willing to “shoot the people you love.”
c. When someone is “without a box,” consider whether there
is an open box that would be a better t or whether you need
to get them out of the company.
d. Be cautious about allowing people to step back to another
role after failing.
9.10 Remember that the goal of a transfer is the best, highest use of the person in a way that bene ts the community as a whole.
a. Have people “complete their swings” before moving on to
new roles.
9.11 Don’t lower the bar.
9.1 Understand that you and the people you manage will go through a process of personal evolution.
a. Recognize that personal evolution should be relatively rapid and a natural consequence of discovering one’s strengths and
weaknesses; as a result, career paths are not planned at the
outset.
b. Understand that training guides the process of personal
evolution.
c. Teach your people to sh rather than give them sh, even if
that means letting them make some mistakes.
d. Recognize that experience creates internalized learning that
book learning can’t replace.
9.2 Provide constant feedback.
9.3 Evaluate accurately, not kindly.
a. In the end, accuracy and kindness are the same thing.
b. Put your compliments and criticisms in perspective.
c. ink about accuracy, not implications.
d. Make accurate assessments.
e. Learn from success as well as from failure.
f. Know that most everyone thinks that what they did, and
what they are doing, is much more important than it really is.
9.4 Recognize that tough love is both the hardest and the most important type of love to give (because it is so rarely welcomed).
a. Recognize that while most people prefer compliments,
accurate criticism is more valuable.
9.5 Don’t hide your observations about people.
a. Build your synthesis from the speci cs up.
b. Squeeze the dots.
c. Don’t oversqueeze a dot.
d. Use evaluation tools such as performance surveys, metrics, and formal reviews to document all aspects of a person’s performance.
9.6 Make the process of learning what someone is like open, evolutionary, and iterative.
a. Make your metrics clear and impartial.
b. Encourage people to be objectively re ective about their
performance.
c. Look at the whole picture.
d. For performance reviews, start from speci c cases, look
for patterns, and get in sync with the person being reviewed
by looking at the evidence together.
e. Remember that when it comes to assessing people, the two
biggest mistakes you can make are being overcon dent in
your assessment and failing to get in sync on it.
f. Get in sync on assessments in a nonhierarchical way.
g. Learn about your people and have them learn about you through frank conversations about mistakes and their root causes.
h. Understand that making sure people are doing a good job doesn’t require watching everything that everybody is doing at all times.
i. Recognize that change is di cult.
j. Help people through the pain that comes with exploring
their weaknesses.
9.7 Knowing how people operate and being able to judge whether that way of operating will lead to good results is more important than knowing what they did.
a. If someone is doing their job poorly, consider whether it is
due to inadequate learning or inadequate ability.
b. Training and testing a poor performer to see if he or she can acquire the required skills without simultaneously trying to
assess their abilities is a common mistake.
9.8 Recognize that when you are really in sync with someone about their weaknesses, the weaknesses are probably true.
a. When judging people, remember that you don’t have to get
to the point of “beyond a shadow of a doubt.”
b. It should take you no more than a year to learn what a
person is like and whether they are a click for their job.
c. Continue assessing people throughout their tenure.
d. Evaluate employees with the same rigor as you evaluate
job candidates.
9.9 Train, guardrail, or remove people; don’t rehabilitate them.
a. Don’t collect people.
b. Be willing to “shoot the people you love.”
c. When someone is “without a box,” consider whether there
is an open box that would be a better t or whether you need
to get them out of the company.
d. Be cautious about allowing people to step back to another
role after failing.
9.10 Remember that the goal of a transfer is the best, highest use of the person in a way that bene ts the community as a whole.
a. Have people “complete their swings” before moving on to
new roles.
9.11 Don’t lower the bar.
原則 Ray Dalio work 7 & 8
TO GET THE PEOPLE RIGHT . . .
7 Remember That the WHO Is More Important than the WHAT
7.1 Recognize that the most important decision for you to make is who you choose as your Responsible Parties.
a. Understand that the most important RPs are those responsible for the goals, outcomes, and machines at the highest levels.
7.2 Know that the ultimate Responsible Party will be the person who bears the consequences of what is done.
a. Make sure that everyone has someone they report to.
7.3 Remember the force behind the thing.
8 Hire Right, Because the Penalties for Hiring Wrong Are Huge
8.1 Match the person to the design.
a. ink through which values, abilities, and skills you are looking for (in that order).
b. Make nding the right people systematic and scienti c.
c. Hear the click: Find the right t between the role and the person.
d. Look for people who sparkle, not just “any ol’ one of those.”
e. Don’t use your pull to get someone a job.
8.2 Remember that people are built very differently and that different ways of seeing and thinking make people suitable for different jobs.
a. Understand how to use and interpret personality assessments.
b. Remember that people tend to pick people like themselves,
so choose interviewers who can identify what you are looking for.
c. Look for people who are willing to look at themselves objectively.
d. Remember that people typically don’t change all that much.
8.3 Think of your teams the way that sports managers do: No one person possesses everything required to produce success, yet everyone must excel.
8.4 Pay attention to people’s track records.
a. Check references.
b. Recognize that performance in school doesn’t tell you much about whether a person has the values and abilities you are looking for.
c. While it’s best to have great conceptual thinkers, understand that great experience and a great track record also count for a lot.
d. Beware of the impractical idealist.
e. Don’t assume that a person who has been successful elsewhere will be successful in the job you’re giving them.
f. Make sure your people have character and are capable.
8.5 Don’t hire people just to t the rst job they will do; hire people you want to share your life with.
a. Look for people who have lots of great questions.
b. Show candidates your warts.
c. Play jazz with people with whom you are compatible but who will also challenge you.
8.6 When considering compensation, provide both stability and opportunity.
a. Pay for the person, not the job.
b. Have performance metrics tied at least loosely to compensation.
c. Pay north of fair.
d. Focus more on making the pie bigger than on exactly how to slice it so that you or anyone else gets the biggest piece.
8.7 Remember that in great partnerships, consideration and generosity are more important than money.
a. Be generous and expect generosity from others.
8.8 Great people are hard to nd so make sure you think about how to keep them.
7 Remember That the WHO Is More Important than the WHAT
7.1 Recognize that the most important decision for you to make is who you choose as your Responsible Parties.
a. Understand that the most important RPs are those responsible for the goals, outcomes, and machines at the highest levels.
7.2 Know that the ultimate Responsible Party will be the person who bears the consequences of what is done.
a. Make sure that everyone has someone they report to.
7.3 Remember the force behind the thing.
8 Hire Right, Because the Penalties for Hiring Wrong Are Huge
8.1 Match the person to the design.
a. ink through which values, abilities, and skills you are looking for (in that order).
b. Make nding the right people systematic and scienti c.
c. Hear the click: Find the right t between the role and the person.
d. Look for people who sparkle, not just “any ol’ one of those.”
e. Don’t use your pull to get someone a job.
8.2 Remember that people are built very differently and that different ways of seeing and thinking make people suitable for different jobs.
a. Understand how to use and interpret personality assessments.
b. Remember that people tend to pick people like themselves,
so choose interviewers who can identify what you are looking for.
c. Look for people who are willing to look at themselves objectively.
d. Remember that people typically don’t change all that much.
8.3 Think of your teams the way that sports managers do: No one person possesses everything required to produce success, yet everyone must excel.
8.4 Pay attention to people’s track records.
a. Check references.
b. Recognize that performance in school doesn’t tell you much about whether a person has the values and abilities you are looking for.
c. While it’s best to have great conceptual thinkers, understand that great experience and a great track record also count for a lot.
d. Beware of the impractical idealist.
e. Don’t assume that a person who has been successful elsewhere will be successful in the job you’re giving them.
f. Make sure your people have character and are capable.
8.5 Don’t hire people just to t the rst job they will do; hire people you want to share your life with.
a. Look for people who have lots of great questions.
b. Show candidates your warts.
c. Play jazz with people with whom you are compatible but who will also challenge you.
8.6 When considering compensation, provide both stability and opportunity.
a. Pay for the person, not the job.
b. Have performance metrics tied at least loosely to compensation.
c. Pay north of fair.
d. Focus more on making the pie bigger than on exactly how to slice it so that you or anyone else gets the biggest piece.
8.7 Remember that in great partnerships, consideration and generosity are more important than money.
a. Be generous and expect generosity from others.
8.8 Great people are hard to nd so make sure you think about how to keep them.
原則 Ray Dalio work 6
6 Recognize How to Get Beyond Disagreements
6.1 Remember: Principles can’t be ignored by mutual agreement.
a. e same standards of behavior apply to everyone.
6.2 Make sure people don’t confuse the right to complain, give advice, and openly debate with the right to make decisions.
a. When challenging a decision and/or a decision maker, consider the broader context.
6.3 Don’t leave important con icts unresolved.
a. Don’t let the little things divide you when your agreement on the big things should bind you.
b. Don’t get stuck in disagreement—escalate or vote!
6.4 Once a decision is made, everyone should get behind it even though individuals may still disagree.
a. See things from the higher level.
b. Never allow the idea meritocracy to slip into anarchy.
c. Don’t allow lynch mobs or mob rule.
6.5 Remember that if the idea meritocracy comes into con ict with the well-being of the organization, it will inevitably suffer.
a. Declare “martial law” only in rare or extreme circumstances when the principles need to be suspended.
b. Be wary of people who argue for the suspension of the idea meritocracy for the “good of the organization.”
6.6 Recognize that if the people who have the power don’t want to operate by principles, the principled way of operating will fail.
6.1 Remember: Principles can’t be ignored by mutual agreement.
a. e same standards of behavior apply to everyone.
6.2 Make sure people don’t confuse the right to complain, give advice, and openly debate with the right to make decisions.
a. When challenging a decision and/or a decision maker, consider the broader context.
6.3 Don’t leave important con icts unresolved.
a. Don’t let the little things divide you when your agreement on the big things should bind you.
b. Don’t get stuck in disagreement—escalate or vote!
6.4 Once a decision is made, everyone should get behind it even though individuals may still disagree.
a. See things from the higher level.
b. Never allow the idea meritocracy to slip into anarchy.
c. Don’t allow lynch mobs or mob rule.
6.5 Remember that if the idea meritocracy comes into con ict with the well-being of the organization, it will inevitably suffer.
a. Declare “martial law” only in rare or extreme circumstances when the principles need to be suspended.
b. Be wary of people who argue for the suspension of the idea meritocracy for the “good of the organization.”
6.6 Recognize that if the people who have the power don’t want to operate by principles, the principled way of operating will fail.
原則 Ray Dalio work 5
5 Believability Weight Your Decision Making
5.1 Recognize that having an effective idea meritocracy requires that you understand the merit of each person’s ideas.
a. If you can’t successfully do something, don’t think you can tell others how it should be done.
b. Remember that everyone has opinions and they are often bad.
5.2 Find the most believable people possible who disagree with you and try to understand their reasoning.
a. ink about people’s believability in order to assess the likelihood that their opinions are good.
b. Remember that believable opinions are most likely to come from people 1) who have successfully accomplished the thing in question at least three times, and 2) who have great explanations of the cause-e ect relationships that lead them to their conclusions.
c. If someone hasn’t done something but has a theory that seems logical and can be stress-tested, then by all means test it.
d. Don’t pay as much attention to people’s conclusions as to the reasoning that led them to their conclusions.
e. Inexperienced people can have great ideas too, sometimes far better ones than more experienced people.
f. Everyone should be up-front in expressing how con dent they are in their thoughts.
5.3 Think about whether you are playing the role of a teacher, a student, or a peer and whether you should be teaching, asking questions, or debating.
a. It’s more important that the student understand the teacher than that the teacher understand the student, though both are important.
b. Recognizethatwhileeveryonehastherightandresponsibility to try to make sense of important things, they must do so with humility and radical open-mindedness.
5.4 Understand how people came by their opinions.
a. If you ask someone a question, they will probably giveyou an answer, so think through to whom you should address your questions.
b. Having everyone randomly probe everyone else is an unproductive waste of time.
c. Beware of statements that begin with “I think that . . .”
d. Assess believability by systematically capturing people’s track records over time.
5.5 Disagreeing must be done ef ciently.
a. Know when to stop debating and move on to agreeing about what should be done.
b. Use believability weighting as a tool rather than a substitute for decision making by Responsible Parties.
c. Since you don’t have the time to thoroughly examine everyone’s thinking yourself, choose your believable people wisely.
d. When you’re responsible for a decision, compare the believability-weighted decision making of the crowd to what you believe.
5.6 Recognize that everyone has the right and responsibility to try to make sense of important things.
a. Communications aimed at getting the best answer should
involve the most relevant people.
b. Communication aimed at educating or boosting cohesion should involve a broader set of people than would be needed if the aim were just getting the best answer.
c. Recognize that you don’t need to make judgments about everything.
5.7 Pay more attention to whether the decision-making system is fair than whether you get your way.
原則Ray Dalio work 4
4 Get and Stay in Sync
4.1 Recognize that con icts are essential for great relationships because they are how people determine whether their principles are aligned and resolve their differences.
a. Spend lavishly on the time and energy you devote to getting in sync, because it’s the best investment you can make.
4.2 Know how to get in sync and disagree well.
a. Surface areas of possible out-of-syncness.
b. Distinguish between idle complaints and complaints meant to lead to improvement.
c. Remember that every story has another side.
4.3 Be open-minded and assertive at the same time.
a. Distinguish open-minded people from closed-minded people.
b. Don’t have anything to do with closed-minded people.
c. Watch out for people who think it’s embarrassing not to know.
d. Make sure that those in charge are open-minded about the questions and comments of others.
e. Recognize that getting in sync is a two-way responsibility.
f. Worry more about substance than style.
g. Be reasonable and expect others to be reasonable.
h. Making suggestions and questioning are not the same as criticizing, so don’t treat them as if they are.
4.4 If it is your meeting to run, manage the conversation.
a. Make it clear who is directing the meeting and whom it is meant to serve.
b. Be precise in what you’re talking about to avoid confusion.
c. Make clear what type of communication you are going to have in light of the objectives and priorities.
d. Lead the discussion by being assertive and open-minded.
e. Navigate between the di erent levels of the conversation.
f. Watch out for “topic slip.”
g. Enforce the logic of conversations.
h. Be careful not to lose personal responsibility via group decision making.
i. Utilize the “two-minute rule” to avoid persistent interruptions.
j. Watch out for assertive “fast talkers.”
k. Achieve completion in conversations.
l. Leverage your communication.
4.5 Great collaboration feels like playing jazz.
a. 1+1=3.
b. 3 to 5 is more than 20.
4.6 When you have alignment, cherish it.
4.7 If you nd you can’t reconcile major differences—especially in values—consider whether the relationship is worth preserving.
4.1 Recognize that con icts are essential for great relationships because they are how people determine whether their principles are aligned and resolve their differences.
a. Spend lavishly on the time and energy you devote to getting in sync, because it’s the best investment you can make.
4.2 Know how to get in sync and disagree well.
a. Surface areas of possible out-of-syncness.
b. Distinguish between idle complaints and complaints meant to lead to improvement.
c. Remember that every story has another side.
4.3 Be open-minded and assertive at the same time.
a. Distinguish open-minded people from closed-minded people.
b. Don’t have anything to do with closed-minded people.
c. Watch out for people who think it’s embarrassing not to know.
d. Make sure that those in charge are open-minded about the questions and comments of others.
e. Recognize that getting in sync is a two-way responsibility.
f. Worry more about substance than style.
g. Be reasonable and expect others to be reasonable.
h. Making suggestions and questioning are not the same as criticizing, so don’t treat them as if they are.
4.4 If it is your meeting to run, manage the conversation.
a. Make it clear who is directing the meeting and whom it is meant to serve.
b. Be precise in what you’re talking about to avoid confusion.
c. Make clear what type of communication you are going to have in light of the objectives and priorities.
d. Lead the discussion by being assertive and open-minded.
e. Navigate between the di erent levels of the conversation.
f. Watch out for “topic slip.”
g. Enforce the logic of conversations.
h. Be careful not to lose personal responsibility via group decision making.
i. Utilize the “two-minute rule” to avoid persistent interruptions.
j. Watch out for assertive “fast talkers.”
k. Achieve completion in conversations.
l. Leverage your communication.
4.5 Great collaboration feels like playing jazz.
a. 1+1=3.
b. 3 to 5 is more than 20.
4.6 When you have alignment, cherish it.
4.7 If you nd you can’t reconcile major differences—especially in values—consider whether the relationship is worth preserving.
原則 Ray Dalio work 3
3 Create a Culture in Which It Is Okay to Make Mistakes and Unacceptable Not to Learn from Them
3.1 Recognize that mistakes are a natural part of the evolutionary process.
a. Fail well.
b. Don’t feel bad about your mistakes or those of others. Love them!
3.2 Don’t worry about looking good—worry about achieving your goals.
a. Get over “blame” and “credit” and get on with “accurate” and “inaccurate.”
3.3 Observe the patterns of mistakes to see if they are products of weaknesses.
3.4 Remember to re ect when you experience pain.
a. Be self-re ective and make sure your people are self-re ective.
b. Know that nobody can see themselves objectively.
c. Teach and reinforce the merits of mistake-based learning.
3.5 Know what types of mistakes are acceptable and what types are unacceptable, and don’t allow the people who work for you to make the unacceptable ones.
3.1 Recognize that mistakes are a natural part of the evolutionary process.
a. Fail well.
b. Don’t feel bad about your mistakes or those of others. Love them!
3.2 Don’t worry about looking good—worry about achieving your goals.
a. Get over “blame” and “credit” and get on with “accurate” and “inaccurate.”
3.3 Observe the patterns of mistakes to see if they are products of weaknesses.
3.4 Remember to re ect when you experience pain.
a. Be self-re ective and make sure your people are self-re ective.
b. Know that nobody can see themselves objectively.
c. Teach and reinforce the merits of mistake-based learning.
3.5 Know what types of mistakes are acceptable and what types are unacceptable, and don’t allow the people who work for you to make the unacceptable ones.
原則 Ray Dalio work 2
2 Cultivate Meaningful Work and Meaningful Relationships
2.1 Be loyal to the common mission and not to anyone who is not operating consistently with it.
2.2 Be crystal clear on what the deal is.
a. Make sure people give more consideration to others than they demand for themselves.
b. Make sure that people understand the di erence between fairness and generosity.
c. Know where the line is and be on the far side of fair.
d. Payforwork.
2.3 Recognize that the size of the organization can pose a threat to meaningful relationships.
2.4 Remember that most people will pretend to operate in your interest while operating in their own.
2.5 Treasure honorable people who are capable and will treat you well even when you’re not looking.
2.1 Be loyal to the common mission and not to anyone who is not operating consistently with it.
2.2 Be crystal clear on what the deal is.
a. Make sure people give more consideration to others than they demand for themselves.
b. Make sure that people understand the di erence between fairness and generosity.
c. Know where the line is and be on the far side of fair.
d. Payforwork.
2.3 Recognize that the size of the organization can pose a threat to meaningful relationships.
2.4 Remember that most people will pretend to operate in your interest while operating in their own.
2.5 Treasure honorable people who are capable and will treat you well even when you’re not looking.
原則 Ray Dalio work 1
SUMMARY AND TABLE OF WORK PRINCIPLES
PART III: WORK PRINCIPLES
• An organization is a machine consisting of two major parts: culture and people.
a. A great organization has both great people and a great culture.
b. Great people have both great character and great capabilities.
c. Great cultures bring problems and disagreements to the surface and solve them well, and they love imagining and
• building great things that haven’t been built before. Tough love is effective for achieving both great
work and great relationships.
a. In order to be great, one can’t compromise the
• uncompromisable.
A believability-weighted idea meritocracy is the best system for making effective decisions.
• Make your passion and your work one and the same and do it with people you want to be with.
TO GET THE CULTURE RIGHT . . .
1 Trust in Radical Truth and Radical Transparency
1.1 Realize that you have nothing to fear from knowing the truth.
1.2 Have integrity and demand it from others.
a. Never say anything about someone that you wouldn’t say to them directly and don’t try people without accusing them to their faces.
b. Don’t let loyalty to people stand in the way of truth and the well-being of the organization.
1.3 Create an environment in which everyone has the right to understand what makes sense and no one has the right to hold a critical opinion without speaking up.
a. Speak up, own it, or get out.
b. Be extremely open.
c. Don’t be naive about dishonesty.
1.4 Be radically transparent.
a. Use transparency to help enforce justice.
b. Share the things that are hardest to share.
c. Keep exceptions to radical transparency very rare.
d. Make sure those who are given radical transparency
recognize their responsibilities to handle it well and to
weigh things intelligently.
e. Provide transparency to people who handle it well and
either deny it to people who don’t handle it well or remove
those people from the organization.
f. Don’t share sensitive information with the organization’s
enemies.
1.5 Meaningful relationships and meaningful work are mutually reinforcing, especially when supported by radical truth and radical transparency.
PART III: WORK PRINCIPLES
• An organization is a machine consisting of two major parts: culture and people.
a. A great organization has both great people and a great culture.
b. Great people have both great character and great capabilities.
c. Great cultures bring problems and disagreements to the surface and solve them well, and they love imagining and
• building great things that haven’t been built before. Tough love is effective for achieving both great
work and great relationships.
a. In order to be great, one can’t compromise the
• uncompromisable.
A believability-weighted idea meritocracy is the best system for making effective decisions.
• Make your passion and your work one and the same and do it with people you want to be with.
TO GET THE CULTURE RIGHT . . .
1 Trust in Radical Truth and Radical Transparency
1.1 Realize that you have nothing to fear from knowing the truth.
1.2 Have integrity and demand it from others.
a. Never say anything about someone that you wouldn’t say to them directly and don’t try people without accusing them to their faces.
b. Don’t let loyalty to people stand in the way of truth and the well-being of the organization.
1.3 Create an environment in which everyone has the right to understand what makes sense and no one has the right to hold a critical opinion without speaking up.
a. Speak up, own it, or get out.
b. Be extremely open.
c. Don’t be naive about dishonesty.
1.4 Be radically transparent.
a. Use transparency to help enforce justice.
b. Share the things that are hardest to share.
c. Keep exceptions to radical transparency very rare.
d. Make sure those who are given radical transparency
recognize their responsibilities to handle it well and to
weigh things intelligently.
e. Provide transparency to people who handle it well and
either deny it to people who don’t handle it well or remove
those people from the organization.
f. Don’t share sensitive information with the organization’s
enemies.
1.5 Meaningful relationships and meaningful work are mutually reinforcing, especially when supported by radical truth and radical transparency.
原則 Ray Dalio Life 5
5 Learn How to Make Decisions Effectively
5.1 Recognize that 1) the biggest threat to good decision making is harmful emotions, and 2) decision making is a two-step process ( rst learning and then deciding).
5.2 Synthesize the situation at hand.
a. One of the most important decisions you can make is who you ask questions of.
b. Don’t believe everything you hear.
c. Everything looks bigger up close.
d. New is overvalued relative to great.
e. Don’t oversqueeze dots.
5.3 Synthesize the situation through time.
a. Keep in mind both the rates of change and the levels of things, and the relationships between them.
b. Be imprecise.
c. Remember the 80/20 Rule and know what the key 20 percent is.
d. Be an imperfectionist.
5.4 Navigate levels effectively.
a. Use the terms “above the line” and “below the line” to establish which level a conversation is on.
b. Remember that decisions need to be made at the appropriate level, but they should also be consistent across levels.
5.5 Logic, reason, and common sense are your best tools for synthesizing reality and understanding what to do about it.
5.6 Make your decisions as expected value calculations.
a. Raising the probability of being right is valuable no matter what your probability of being right already is.
b. Knowing when not to bet is as important as knowing what bets are probably worth making.
c. The best choices are the ones that have more pros than cons, not those that don’t have any cons at all.
5.7 Prioritize by weighing the value of additional information against the cost of not deciding.
a. All of your “must-dos” must be above the bar before you do your “like-to-dos.”
b. Chances are you won’t have time to deal with the unimportant things, which is better than not having time to deal with the important things.
c. Don’t mistake possibilities for probabilities.
5.8 Simplify!
5.9 Use principles.
5.10 Believability weight your decision making.
5.11 Convert your principles into algorithms and have the computer make decisions alongside you.
5.12 Be cautious about trusting AI without having deep understanding.
5.1 Recognize that 1) the biggest threat to good decision making is harmful emotions, and 2) decision making is a two-step process ( rst learning and then deciding).
5.2 Synthesize the situation at hand.
a. One of the most important decisions you can make is who you ask questions of.
b. Don’t believe everything you hear.
c. Everything looks bigger up close.
d. New is overvalued relative to great.
e. Don’t oversqueeze dots.
5.3 Synthesize the situation through time.
a. Keep in mind both the rates of change and the levels of things, and the relationships between them.
b. Be imprecise.
c. Remember the 80/20 Rule and know what the key 20 percent is.
d. Be an imperfectionist.
5.4 Navigate levels effectively.
a. Use the terms “above the line” and “below the line” to establish which level a conversation is on.
b. Remember that decisions need to be made at the appropriate level, but they should also be consistent across levels.
5.5 Logic, reason, and common sense are your best tools for synthesizing reality and understanding what to do about it.
5.6 Make your decisions as expected value calculations.
a. Raising the probability of being right is valuable no matter what your probability of being right already is.
b. Knowing when not to bet is as important as knowing what bets are probably worth making.
c. The best choices are the ones that have more pros than cons, not those that don’t have any cons at all.
5.7 Prioritize by weighing the value of additional information against the cost of not deciding.
a. All of your “must-dos” must be above the bar before you do your “like-to-dos.”
b. Chances are you won’t have time to deal with the unimportant things, which is better than not having time to deal with the important things.
c. Don’t mistake possibilities for probabilities.
5.8 Simplify!
5.9 Use principles.
5.10 Believability weight your decision making.
5.11 Convert your principles into algorithms and have the computer make decisions alongside you.
5.12 Be cautious about trusting AI without having deep understanding.
原則 Ray Dalio life 4
4 Understand That People Are Wired Very Differently
4.1 Understand the power that comes from knowing how you and others are wired.
a. We are born with attributes that can both help us and hurt us, depending on their application.
4.2 Meaningful work and meaningful relationships aren’t just nice things we chose for ourselves—they are genetically programmed into us.
4.3 Understand the great brain battles and how to control them to get what “you” want.
a. Realize that the conscious mind is in a battle with the subconscious mind.
b. Know that the most constant struggle is between feeling and thinking.
c. Reconcile your feelings and your thinking.
d. Choose your habits well.
e. Train your “lower-level you” with kindness and persistence to build the right habits.
f. Understand the di erences between right-brained and left-brained thinking.
g. Understand how much the brain can and cannot change.
4.4 Find out what you and others are like.
a. Introversionvs.extroversion.
b. Intuiting vs. sensing.
c. inking vs. feeling.
d. Planning vs. perceiving.
e. Creators vs. re ners vs. advancers vs. executors vs. exors.
f. Focusing on tasks vs. focusing on goals.
g. Workplace Personality Inventory.
h. Shapers are people who can go from visualization to actualization.
4.5 Getting the right people in the right roles in support of your goal is the key to succeeding at whatever you choose to accomplish.
a. Manage yourself and orchestrate others to get what you want.
4.1 Understand the power that comes from knowing how you and others are wired.
a. We are born with attributes that can both help us and hurt us, depending on their application.
4.2 Meaningful work and meaningful relationships aren’t just nice things we chose for ourselves—they are genetically programmed into us.
4.3 Understand the great brain battles and how to control them to get what “you” want.
a. Realize that the conscious mind is in a battle with the subconscious mind.
b. Know that the most constant struggle is between feeling and thinking.
c. Reconcile your feelings and your thinking.
d. Choose your habits well.
e. Train your “lower-level you” with kindness and persistence to build the right habits.
f. Understand the di erences between right-brained and left-brained thinking.
g. Understand how much the brain can and cannot change.
4.4 Find out what you and others are like.
a. Introversionvs.extroversion.
b. Intuiting vs. sensing.
c. inking vs. feeling.
d. Planning vs. perceiving.
e. Creators vs. re ners vs. advancers vs. executors vs. exors.
f. Focusing on tasks vs. focusing on goals.
g. Workplace Personality Inventory.
h. Shapers are people who can go from visualization to actualization.
4.5 Getting the right people in the right roles in support of your goal is the key to succeeding at whatever you choose to accomplish.
a. Manage yourself and orchestrate others to get what you want.
原則 Ray Dalio life 3
3 Be Radically Open-Minded
3.1 Recognize your two barriers.
a. Understand your ego barrier.
b. Your two “yous” ght to control you. c. Understand your blind spot barrier.
3.2 Practice radical open-mindedness.
a. Sincerely believe that you might not know the best possible path and recognize that your ability to deal well with “not knowing” is more important than whatever it is you do know.
b. Recognize that decision making is a two-step process: First take in all the relevant information, then decide.
c. Don’t worry about looking good; worry about achieving your goal.
d. Realize that you can’t put out without taking in.
e. Recognize that to gain the perspective that comes from seeing things through another’s eyes, you must suspend judgment for a time—only by empathizing can you properly evaluate another point of view.
f. Remember that you’re looking for the best answer, not simply the best answer that you can come up with yourself.
g. Be clear on whether you are arguing or seeking to understand, and think about which is most appropriate based on your and others’ believability.
3.3 Appreciate the art of thoughtful disagreement.
3.4 Triangulate your view with believable people who are willing to disagree.
a. Plan for the worst-case scenario to make it as good as possible.
3.5 Recognize the signs of closed-mindedness and open-mindedness that you should watch out for.
3.6 Understand how you can become radically open-minded.
a. Regularly use pain as your guide toward quality re ection.
b. Make being open-minded a habit.
c. Get to know your blind spots.
d. If a number of di erent believable people say you are doing something wrong and you are the only one who doesn’t see it that way, assume that you are probably biased.
e. Meditate.
f. Be evidence-based and encourage others to be the same
g. Do everything in your power to help others also be open-minded.
h. Use evidence-based decision-making tools.
i. Know when it’s best to stop ghting and have faith in your decision-making process.
3.1 Recognize your two barriers.
a. Understand your ego barrier.
b. Your two “yous” ght to control you. c. Understand your blind spot barrier.
3.2 Practice radical open-mindedness.
a. Sincerely believe that you might not know the best possible path and recognize that your ability to deal well with “not knowing” is more important than whatever it is you do know.
b. Recognize that decision making is a two-step process: First take in all the relevant information, then decide.
c. Don’t worry about looking good; worry about achieving your goal.
d. Realize that you can’t put out without taking in.
e. Recognize that to gain the perspective that comes from seeing things through another’s eyes, you must suspend judgment for a time—only by empathizing can you properly evaluate another point of view.
f. Remember that you’re looking for the best answer, not simply the best answer that you can come up with yourself.
g. Be clear on whether you are arguing or seeking to understand, and think about which is most appropriate based on your and others’ believability.
3.3 Appreciate the art of thoughtful disagreement.
3.4 Triangulate your view with believable people who are willing to disagree.
a. Plan for the worst-case scenario to make it as good as possible.
3.5 Recognize the signs of closed-mindedness and open-mindedness that you should watch out for.
3.6 Understand how you can become radically open-minded.
a. Regularly use pain as your guide toward quality re ection.
b. Make being open-minded a habit.
c. Get to know your blind spots.
d. If a number of di erent believable people say you are doing something wrong and you are the only one who doesn’t see it that way, assume that you are probably biased.
e. Meditate.
f. Be evidence-based and encourage others to be the same
g. Do everything in your power to help others also be open-minded.
h. Use evidence-based decision-making tools.
i. Know when it’s best to stop ghting and have faith in your decision-making process.
原則 Ray Dalio Life 2
2 Use the 5-Step Process to Get What You Want Out of Life
2.1 Have clear goals.
a. Prioritize: While you can have virtually anything you want, you can’t have everything you want.
b. Don’t confuse goals with desires.
c. Decide what you really want in life by reconciling your goals and your desires.
d. Don’t mistake the trappings of success for success itself.
e. Never rule out a goal because you think it’s unattainable.
f. Remember that great expectations create great capabilities.
g. Almost nothing can stop you from succeeding if you have a) exibility and b) self-accountability.
h. Knowing how to deal well with your setbacks is as important as knowing how to move forward.
2.2 Identify and don’t tolerate problems.
a. View painful problems as potential improvements that are screaming at you.
b. Don’t avoid confronting problems because they are rooted in harsh realities that are unpleasant to look at.
c. Be speci c in identifying your problems.
d. Don’t mistake a cause of a problem with the real problem.
e. Distinguish big problems from small ones.
f. Once you identify a problem, don’t tolerate it.
2.3 Diagnose problems to get at their root causes.
a. Focus on the “what is” before deciding “what to do about it.”
b. Distinguish proximate causes from root causes.
c. Recognize that knowing what someone (including you) is like will tell you what you can expect from them.
2.4 Design a plan.
a. Go back before you go forward.
b. ink about your problem as a set of outcomes produced by a machine.
c. Remember that there are typically many paths to achieving your goals.
d. ink of your plan as being like a movie script in that you visualize who will do what through time.
e. Write down your plan for everyone to see and to measure your progress against.
f. Recognize that it doesn’t take a lot of time to design a good plan.
2.5 Push through to completion.
a. Great planners who don’t execute their plans go nowhere.
b. Good work habits are vastly underrated.
c. Establish clear metrics to make certain that you are following your plan.
2.6 Remember that weaknesses don’t matter if you nd solutions.
a. Look at the patterns of your mistakes and identify at which step in the 5-Step Process you typically fail.
b. Everyone has at least one big thing that stands in the way of their success; nd yours and deal with it.
2.7 Understand your own and others’ mental maps and humility.
原則 Ray Dalio Life 1
書摘 Life 生活的原則
SUMMARY AND TABLE OF LIFE PRINCIPLES
• Think for yourself to decide 想想看
1) what you want, 你想要什麼
2) what is true, and 事實是什麼
3) what you should do to achieve #1 in light of #2, and do that with humility and open-mindedness so that you consider the best thinking available to you. 如何透過對事實的了解，謙虛且開放的去做，以達成想要的
LIFE PRINCIPLES INTRODUCTION
• Look to the patterns of those things that affect you
in order to understand the cause-effect relationships that drive them and to learn principles for dealing with them effectively.
為了瞭解影響你的那些事情的的因果關係， 以及有效處理那些事情的原則， 請你認真的看看影響你的那些事情的規律（PATTERN）
PART II: LIFE PRINCIPLES
1 Embrace Reality and Deal with It
1.1 Be a hyperrealist.
a. Dreams + Reality + Determination = A Successful Life.
1.2 Truth—or, more precisely, an accurate understanding of reality —is the essential foundation for any good outcome.
1.3 Be radically open-minded and radically transparent.
a. Radical open-mindedness and radical transparency are invaluable for rapid learning and e ective change.
b. Don’t let fears of what others think of you stand in your way.
c. Embracing radical truth and radical transparency will bring more meaningful work and more meaningful relationships.
1.4 Look to nature to learn how reality works.
a. Don’t get hung up on your views of how things “should” be because you will miss out on learning how they really are.
b. To be “good,” something must operate consistently with the laws of reality and contribute to the evolution of the whole; that is what is most rewarded.
c. Evolution is the single greatest force in the universe; it is the only thing that is permanent and it drives everything.
d. Evolve or die.
1.5 Evolving is life’s greatest accomplishment and its greatest reward.
a. The individual’s incentives must be aligned with the group’s goals.
b. Reality is optimizing for the whole—not for you.
c. Adaptation through rapid trial and error is invaluable.
d. Realize that you are simultaneously everything and nothing—and decide what you want to be.
e. What you will be will depend on the perspective you have.
1.6 Understand nature’s practical lessons.
a. Maximizeyourevolution.
b. Remember “no pain, no gain.”
c. It is a fundamental law of nature that in order to gain strength one has to push one’s limits, which is painful.
1.7 Pain + Re ection = Progress.
a. Go to the pain rather than avoid it.
b. Embrace tough love.
1.8 Weigh second- and third-order consequences.
1.9 Own your outcomes.
1.10 Look at the machine from the higher level.
a. ink of yourself as a machine operating within a machine and know that you have the ability to alter your machines to produce better outcomes.
b. By comparing your outcomes with your goals, you can determine how to modify your machine.
c. Distinguish between you as the designer of your machine and you as a worker with your machine.
d. e biggest mistake most people make is to not see themselves and others objectively, which leads them to bump into their own and others’ weaknesses again and again.
e. Successful people are those who can go above themselves to
see things objectively and manage those things to shape change.
f. Asking others who are strong in areas where you are weak to help you is a great skill that you should develop no matter what, as it will help you develop guardrails that will
prevent you from doing what you shouldn’t be doing.
g. Because it is di cult to see oneself objectively, you need to rely on the input of others and the whole body of evidence.
h. If you are open-minded enough and determined, you can get virtually anything you want.
SUMMARY AND TABLE OF LIFE PRINCIPLES
• Think for yourself to decide 想想看
1) what you want, 你想要什麼
2) what is true, and 事實是什麼
3) what you should do to achieve #1 in light of #2, and do that with humility and open-mindedness so that you consider the best thinking available to you. 如何透過對事實的了解，謙虛且開放的去做，以達成想要的
LIFE PRINCIPLES INTRODUCTION
• Look to the patterns of those things that affect you
in order to understand the cause-effect relationships that drive them and to learn principles for dealing with them effectively.
為了瞭解影響你的那些事情的的因果關係， 以及有效處理那些事情的原則， 請你認真的看看影響你的那些事情的規律（PATTERN）
PART II: LIFE PRINCIPLES
1 Embrace Reality and Deal with It
1.1 Be a hyperrealist.
a. Dreams + Reality + Determination = A Successful Life.
1.2 Truth—or, more precisely, an accurate understanding of reality —is the essential foundation for any good outcome.
1.3 Be radically open-minded and radically transparent.
a. Radical open-mindedness and radical transparency are invaluable for rapid learning and e ective change.
b. Don’t let fears of what others think of you stand in your way.
c. Embracing radical truth and radical transparency will bring more meaningful work and more meaningful relationships.
1.4 Look to nature to learn how reality works.
a. Don’t get hung up on your views of how things “should” be because you will miss out on learning how they really are.
b. To be “good,” something must operate consistently with the laws of reality and contribute to the evolution of the whole; that is what is most rewarded.
c. Evolution is the single greatest force in the universe; it is the only thing that is permanent and it drives everything.
d. Evolve or die.
1.5 Evolving is life’s greatest accomplishment and its greatest reward.
a. The individual’s incentives must be aligned with the group’s goals.
b. Reality is optimizing for the whole—not for you.
c. Adaptation through rapid trial and error is invaluable.
d. Realize that you are simultaneously everything and nothing—and decide what you want to be.
e. What you will be will depend on the perspective you have.
1.6 Understand nature’s practical lessons.
a. Maximizeyourevolution.
b. Remember “no pain, no gain.”
c. It is a fundamental law of nature that in order to gain strength one has to push one’s limits, which is painful.
1.7 Pain + Re ection = Progress.
a. Go to the pain rather than avoid it.
b. Embrace tough love.
1.8 Weigh second- and third-order consequences.
1.9 Own your outcomes.
1.10 Look at the machine from the higher level.
a. ink of yourself as a machine operating within a machine and know that you have the ability to alter your machines to produce better outcomes.
b. By comparing your outcomes with your goals, you can determine how to modify your machine.
c. Distinguish between you as the designer of your machine and you as a worker with your machine.
d. e biggest mistake most people make is to not see themselves and others objectively, which leads them to bump into their own and others’ weaknesses again and again.
e. Successful people are those who can go above themselves to
see things objectively and manage those things to shape change.
f. Asking others who are strong in areas where you are weak to help you is a great skill that you should develop no matter what, as it will help you develop guardrails that will
prevent you from doing what you shouldn’t be doing.
g. Because it is di cult to see oneself objectively, you need to rely on the input of others and the whole body of evidence.
h. If you are open-minded enough and determined, you can get virtually anything you want.
Smart city ASUS
Asus ai nurse
It uses watson data base．
Text input on pc
Voice interact on zenbo robot
Voice interact with avartar on big screen
3/29/2018
電影：少年Pi的奇幻漂流
少年Pi的奇幻漂流
life of Pi 是一個很特別的電影，兩個故事，一個很精彩，是人與動物共存，然後最後剩下Pi 與老虎，在海上漂流7個月才獲救。
後來日本保險公司來了解沈船原因，Pi 第一個故事沒人能懂，所以他說了第二個故事，
四個人到了救生艇，Pi（老虎），廚師（鬣狗）， 媽媽（猩猩），水手（中國人，摔斷腿，斑馬）； 大家沒東西吃，水手又因受傷病重，因此成為第一個食物。後來，廚師欺負媽媽，殺掉媽媽，Pi 忿而殺掉廚師。媽媽與廚師都成為食物。讓Pi活下去。
他的痛苦，在於素食主義者，為了生存，必須殺人，必須吃掉母親的肉。但那一切，只在海上發生，是夢是真？
https://forum.gamer.com.tw/Co.php?bsn=60200&sn=104142
http://mike0123783.pixnet.net/blog/post/37434064-少年pi的奇幻漂流-三個寓意以及一個主題
3/28/2018
任立中 建構六都健康指標及商業模式
大数据行销創新策略
-行銷近視病到統計眼翳症statistics cataract
AI需用統計
举办2019年10月在世貿品牌及行销會展、
2013 Amazon anticipatory shipping
如何在客可浏览时即可出貨
whst is new? Value creation. 洞人心扉 数据力
so what? Value appropriation.動人心扉 行销力
客户的異質性及動态性
不是所有資料都同等重要
眼疾vs 筆电銷售 正相关
高血压 vs 食盐銷量 部分正相关
糖尿病vs用藥
高血压vs用藥
台北市医院1000多種藥去找出某種藥和其他藥品的連動性、利用AI的方式去預測未來的庫存及領用
目前的六都健康分析尚在早期、先看一下現象、将找医生來找insight, 再進行第二波的研
Fwd: Paris Lo
---------- Forwarded message ---------
From: Hermann <p97748001@gmail.com>
Date: 2018年3月28日週三 19:56
Subject: Paris Lo
To: <aidusu.67890@blogger.com>
From: Hermann <p97748001@gmail.com>
Date: 2018年3月28日週三 19:56
Subject: Paris Lo
To: <aidusu.67890@blogger.com>
cacafly introduction
2011 代理FB、一周台湾上广告500支、可用來比較data並分析
2013接msn及skype
2015接Line等
digital ads....
display ad msn, google
video ad youtube
social ad line,fb
search ad google, yahoo
DMP n DSP tenmax
digital ads
台湾的ad约312亿元市场
行动平板占70% PC30%
一般vs社交 65:35
程式化广告 28.5%
关键字 38%。影音28% 展示24% 口碑9% 其他1%
数位時代
点繫到成交仍有6~8动
FB 每天看14次_手机只看l.7秒
80%对Line成隐
"這群人"大紅
提醒
不要被媒体绑架
善用第三方监測
数位不要只看報表或数字
数位要市調
善用全方位数位 要API、CRM
client 端的上中下整合(内部、客戶、媒体兼顧)
任立中 建構六都健康指標及商業模式
大数据行销創新策略
-行銷近視病到統計眼翳症statistics cataract
AI需用統計
举办2019年10月在世貿品牌及行销會展、
2013 Amazon anticipatory shipping
如何在客可浏览时即可出貨
whst is new? Value creation. 洞人心扉 数据力
so what? Value appropriation.動人心扉 行销力
客户的異質性及動态性
不是所有資料都同等重要
眼疾vs 筆电銷售 正相关
高血压 vs 食盐銷量 部分正相关
糖尿病vs用藥
高血压vs用藥
台北市医院1000多種藥去找出某種藥和其他藥品的連動性、利用AI的方式去預測未來的庫存及領用
目前的六都健康分析尚在早期、先看一下現象、将找医生來找insight, 再進行第二波的研
Paris Lo
cacafly introduction
2011 代理FB、一周台湾上广告500支、可用來比較data並分析
2013接msn及skype
2015接Line等
digital ads....
display ad msn, google
video ad youtube
social ad line,fb
search ad google, yahoo
DMP n DSP tenmax
digital ads
台湾的ad约312亿元市场
行动平板占70% PC30%
一般vs社交 65:35
程式化广告 28.5%
关键字 38%。影音28% 展示24% 口碑9% 其他1%
数位時代
点繫到成交仍有6~8动
FB 每天看14次_手机只看l.7秒
80%对Line成隐
不要被媒体绑架
善用第三方监測
数位不要只看報表
數位=市調
善用全方位 API， CRM， etc
內部，外部，媒體都要整合
數位=市調
善用全方位 API， CRM， etc
內部，外部，媒體都要整合
Quadrant self organizing networks SON
Quadrant 是D wave system 公司的machine learning company.
rule or policy based network 仍需要人的參与、未來的5G网需要机器自动学習
why 5G breaks the OSS BSS?
Connectivity 1000x more
speed 500x faster 20Mbps to 100Gbps
latency 50x lower
5G makes things harder and failure cost higher than 4G
2008 3GPP 定义rel 8, 而5G在rel 15
planning,
deployment, self configuration
maintence, self healing, and self optimization
what machine learning?
tom mitchell CMU, a computer software or program to learn from experience E .... learning without E
AI is a sector including machine learning technology.
machine learning includes deep learning.
ml is a toolkit that uses the right tool algorithm to do the right task.
supervised. discriminative learning
unsupervised. generative learning
reenforcement learning
qualcomm on device AI
ST Liew
2019 将有5G ready、生態及电信公司
未來裝置、机器及物都更智慧、在晶片上
bring the AI to the masses...
rapid replacement cycles,
superior scale
integrated and optimised technologies
現在智慧手机要由人輸入、但未來的AI來自sensor或影像、裝置自主去取得input、甚至運算及回应
qualcomm snapdragon 845 mobile platform
sony xz2, galaxy s9, asus zenfon 5z
snapdragon 700 series,
2x ai performance, 30% power efficiency
NPE CPU, GPU, DSP
未來許多智慧会從云一到裝置上如meters...
好处是 privacy, reliability, low latency, efficient use of network bandwidth
当然AI on devices 有好也有壞
merits of AI on device....
true personal assistant
battrry life
efficient connrction
better photograph
security
next steps....
specilaized gardware
algorithm advancements
improved optimization strategies
AWS use big data for AI in telecom
what is big data?
High variety, different sources and format,
high volume,
大数据處理流程
data
ingest.collect
store
process.analyze
consume.visualize
answer.insight ..分三个 historical,realtime, predictions
what is AI?
A system can prrform taskd thatbusauly requires human intelligence, straong orceeak AI
mschine learning 机器自己学習不必明难程式化
deep learning 学習人工神经网络ANN 包含超过一层
2020時90%的公司兌用Data來收入
2022時30%的企業app市場会有用代協助人的智慧工具
電信商也許会走向未來的CSP 通讯服務
不同領域的应用和技術推升AI+lOT
案例
predictive maintenance
purecloud.. amazon lex, polly 可提供客服服務
amaxon go just walk out technology, sensor fusion, vision recognition, deep learning technology, algorithm,
遠傳的IoT策略
曾詩淵
集团的公司近200家、loT先從集团做起
NB-loT從去年推出
先從政府、智慧城市、有效率的交通、
再从公共租車(自行車、机車)切入
空氕品质、
智慧建築、
智慧家庭監控、智慧門鎖(HOTEL、airbnb)、
監控路况
賽鴿的应用racing pigeon從2G到NBloT
產品追踪
遠傳的角色
通訊、管理平台、应用平台
的device, app 企业合作
通訊技術
massive iot 用NBloT
5月底全省涵盖
roaming test with 3HK in HK 全省第一個
mission critical iot 用lte a
應用
1..connected scooters
disgnostic,
energy management,
2..vision of connected vehicles
降低塞車
路况的訊息
用路安全
自動驾駛
環境監控
遠傳会成立一個4G自動車協会來推動
softbank AI strategy
satoshi yamada
iot division
43 million subscribers in Japan.2017(2005才15M)
softbank vision fund
用AI在全球行動通訊市場
用AI做用后满意度 客戶分類去予測用戶行為
net promoter score 去計算及分析
text msg mining of customers
deep learning to find the tendency
customrr data lake
ai faq for call center to know what customers need
ai chatbots
image recognition to count the in and out of customers to stores.
用AI在IOT新事業
beyond carrier
未來只做二个AI&lOT 第三波革命(PC一手机之后)
IoT plstform
connectibity platform
arm solution
smart infra solution, pacific consulting inc to build some infra
nikken advanced architecture company
vayyar, venonica
j.score , with a bank mizuno to analyze user score
deepcore
簡單說、跟很多公司合作测試、
AWS connected car solution
4 types of connected car
byod,satellite,
aftermarket OBD2
embedded car
amazon in automotives
connected vehicle use cases
採用租用方式使用
有很多工具可使用
也有machine learning
data collection.. AWS middleware to get the data
MQTT
security connection route to tx data
certificate to tx
data stack to store the data
data analytic, detection, processing
data aggregators, facilitatevmachine learning
driver safety, behavior monitoring, camera data
diagnostics of the car status
location, map and rosd information
user side, cellular phone or website portal,
user experience
user authority
next topic,
..vehicle to vehicle communication through the cloud
..multi access edge computing improve v2v communication ex nokia edge computing
..act locally on the data generated from connected cars ex response quickly to local event, operate offline and update to cloud, simplified device programming, local machine learning, local messsge broker,
...distracted driver and sign identification on AWS Greengrass Machine learning interface
another topic
...automotive grade linux? it is an open source linux based project
vehicle generates many data
reference architeture
vehicle gateway need be robostic and distributed principle
3/27/2018
電影：女王與知己
http://cfsjhscfsjhs.pixnet.net/blog/post/460662056-女王與知己victoria-and-abdul-看電影學歷史，弄
女王與知己； 描述維多利亞女王（茱蒂丹契 飾）和年輕侍從阿卜杜勒卡里米（阿里扎勒 飾）非比尋常的友誼，女王把阿卜杜勒視為自己的老師、精神導師和知己。1887年，阿卜杜勒遠從印度前往英國獻禮，無意間跟年邁的女王成為朋友，這段非比尋常的關係，在王室內部掀起軒然大波，女王甚至因此跟宮廷和家人反目。
茱蒂丹契飾演的維多利亞女王既有著王族的威嚴，同時也深受孤寂所苦，電影的時間線所有跟女王最親的人都去世了，包括丈夫阿爾伯特親王、最親的男僕約翰布朗、以及關係最好的利奧波德王子，因此阿卜杜勒的出現，無疑是排解她長久孤寂的存在
女王逝世後，一直敵視阿卜杜勒的伯特，也就是後來的愛德華七世立馬把他們全家趕回印度，並燒毀所有與女王有關的物品，就像他從未存在般，直到百年後在印度發現阿卜杜勒生前遺留的筆記以及一張僅存的照片，才得以讓觀眾看見這段不可能的友誼
這個故事，參考2010年發現的 Abdul 的日記，他生於1864，1888見女王，1901女王死才回到印度阿格拉，負責親女王雕像的腳，1909死亡（才活著43歲）。
他是騙子，有淋病，只為了升遷？
但是他真的有學識，可以教女王，陪女王？還可以背完整的可蘭經？
他有妻小，卻可以讓女王把他的妻小全部接到倫敦來安頓？
他所寫的故事，英國皇室，可能都不會接受。
但英國皇室後來的故事也很有趣！
https://www.nownews.com/news/20130602/257459
看後來的英國君王列表！
維多利亞
1837年6月20日–1901年1月22日 Coronation portrait of Queen Victoria
愛德華七世 阿爾伯特·愛德華
1901年1月22日–1910年5月6日 Edward VII
喬治五世 喬治·弗雷德里克·恩斯特·阿爾伯特
1910年5月6日–1936年1月20日 George V
愛德華八世 愛德華·阿爾伯特·克里斯蒂安·喬治·安德魯·派屈克·大衛
1936年1月20日–1936年12月11日（退位） King Edward VIII, when Prince of Wales
喬治六世 阿爾伯特·弗雷德里克·亞瑟·喬治
1936年12月11日–1952年2月6日 King George VI
伊莉莎白二世 伊莉莎白·亞歷山德拉·瑪麗
1952年2月6日–現今
女王與知己； 描述維多利亞女王（茱蒂丹契 飾）和年輕侍從阿卜杜勒卡里米（阿里扎勒 飾）非比尋常的友誼，女王把阿卜杜勒視為自己的老師、精神導師和知己。1887年，阿卜杜勒遠從印度前往英國獻禮，無意間跟年邁的女王成為朋友，這段非比尋常的關係，在王室內部掀起軒然大波，女王甚至因此跟宮廷和家人反目。
茱蒂丹契飾演的維多利亞女王既有著王族的威嚴，同時也深受孤寂所苦，電影的時間線所有跟女王最親的人都去世了，包括丈夫阿爾伯特親王、最親的男僕約翰布朗、以及關係最好的利奧波德王子，因此阿卜杜勒的出現，無疑是排解她長久孤寂的存在
女王逝世後，一直敵視阿卜杜勒的伯特，也就是後來的愛德華七世立馬把他們全家趕回印度，並燒毀所有與女王有關的物品，就像他從未存在般，直到百年後在印度發現阿卜杜勒生前遺留的筆記以及一張僅存的照片，才得以讓觀眾看見這段不可能的友誼
這個故事，參考2010年發現的 Abdul 的日記，他生於1864，1888見女王，1901女王死才回到印度阿格拉，負責親女王雕像的腳，1909死亡（才活著43歲）。
他是騙子，有淋病，只為了升遷？
但是他真的有學識，可以教女王，陪女王？還可以背完整的可蘭經？
他有妻小，卻可以讓女王把他的妻小全部接到倫敦來安頓？
他所寫的故事，英國皇室，可能都不會接受。
但英國皇室後來的故事也很有趣！
https://www.nownews.com/news/20130602/257459
看後來的英國君王列表！
維多利亞
1837年6月20日–1901年1月22日 Coronation portrait of Queen Victoria
愛德華七世 阿爾伯特·愛德華
1901年1月22日–1910年5月6日 Edward VII
喬治五世 喬治·弗雷德里克·恩斯特·阿爾伯特
1910年5月6日–1936年1月20日 George V
愛德華八世 愛德華·阿爾伯特·克里斯蒂安·喬治·安德魯·派屈克·大衛
1936年1月20日–1936年12月11日（退位） King Edward VIII, when Prince of Wales
喬治六世 阿爾伯特·弗雷德里克·亞瑟·喬治
1936年12月11日–1952年2月6日 King George VI
伊莉莎白二世 伊莉莎白·亞歷山德拉·瑪麗
1952年2月6日–現今
3/26/2018
私董會
企業環境改變VUCA
變動丶不確定丶複雜
很難面面俱到
YPD及vistage
五五私董會
5千萬一五億之董事長一起相聚
後EMBA的董事長或高階主管之聚會
保密信任尊重分享
只討論企業之事，大家共同決定題目
每個會約10－15人
每月一次每次半－一天
入會費另計
帶領丶顧問丶教練不同角色
先挑選主題
每人先分享2分鐘
主角講問題
釐清問題
定義問題
確認問題
分析
提建議
總結
創新者的基因
5個特質
提問最重要
U型理論
Presensing
Co creating
Co evolving
Four levels of listening
Habits
Outside open mind
Within open heart
Source open will
黃崇興演講－新竹
別靠自己做決策
獨孤求敗!
要多元思考。
理性，不理性?
重視基本盤，基本上會是怎樣
學習看機率，重視大多數的機率
世界者沒有零風險的事
很多人會用果去找原因(牽拖)進而推測未來
用12個不同聲音來輔助，不要只靠少數人
關鍵失敗因素
成功者的特例被放大
沈沒成本
1999花90億美金蓋核四
到現在已花5千億元台幣
狂妄的自信
很多人會放大自己而犯錯誤
群體的盲從
一群人集體討論時的偏誤
錦上添花的謬誤
新資訊進來，人卻用舊的思考來合理化
視新的異狀為outlier 然後自我安慰
很多人會抹煞新事
權威往往是錯的
老師，醫生，神職人員，CEO，成功的老闆，往往是錯的!
How immel success theater masked the rot at GE by Wall Street Journal
思考的藝術
3/25/2018
虛擬貨幣
2008年中本聰發表比特幣白皮書 2009年首批50顆比特幣問世發行總量為21000000顆 預估2140年達到上限 透過線上挖礦產生的成績數為區塊鏈技術 去中心化的機制為 公用鑰匙與私用鑰匙 工作量證明書
貨幣應具備四種功能 交易媒介 價單位價值儲存延期支付
台灣的法定貨幣根據中央銀髮銀行法第13條中華民國貨幣遊中央銀行發行中華民國境內一切支付具有法效力和製造由中央銀行社廠專營定管理之
2013年中央銀行跟金管會聯合發表新聞稿說比特幣不是貨幣比特幣是數位的虛擬商品比特幣具有高度投機的風險 2014年再度強調比特幣不是貨幣
因此台幣買比特幣叫做買賣 用比特幣買東西互易
提供使用者簡單方便地取得比特幣的位置不需要下載區塊鏈可以在電腦跟手機上使用的錢包提供者
比特幣的交易平台包含代購代售 交易所場外交易比特幣提款機 交易所的類型有三種中心化的交易所混合型的交易所去中心化的交易所
分散式帳本每個節點都有完整的帳本 匿名信帳本不用真實姓名給你特定位置表示比特幣其實是辦匿名的系統可以透過觀察比特幣的位置去連結他的真實身份
全家便利商店可以兌換比特幣 中央銀行官員表示超商的做法是以物易物所以沒有違法的疑慮
台灣汽車產業現況
2017年 台灣總領牌數 444-629 其中進口車 189712國產車 254-917 出口 39 519
車款的分類 轎車 2042 07 RV 1924 96 SUV 1428 73 商用車379 60 豪華級跑車22503 巴士貨卡車 9966
品牌的分類 豐田家族 131 273 中華三菱 8209日產 是2630 本田34071 賓士29 126 馬自達2 3 5 7 福特2018 1 寶馬188 13 裕隆14983 福斯13765 現代12003 以上大約就佔了將近9成
2017年台灣汽車總保有量約7950000輛 其中小客車676萬量 商用車1120000輛 特種車65000輛 其中10年以下新車站45 百分 15年以上舊車 戰30百分比 期間25百分比
台灣汽車工業的產值 2017年 總產值4145 台幣1元 其中汽車零組件佔2317台幣1元 汽車整車的殘值為 1828台幣1元 和台灣的汽車整車外銷主要是到中東地區
就全球市場來看 全球汽車銷售量 第一名是中國 2887 8904 台 第二名 是美國 1754 7220 第三名是日本 5234 165 若以汽車品牌 第一名是豐田871 3629 第二名為浮屍 6832-840 第三名為福特 6165-704 第四名為本田 516 2598 第五名為日產5142 3986名為現代44000 42 賓士為第十名 255 1374 寶馬 為12名 2077-316
全球汽車結構產生變化 新人原車快速擴張 自動輔助駕駛走向無人駕駛 物聯網平台進入車輛的應用汽車共享帶動新的商業模式
台灣是特斯拉零組件重要的供應 基地 減速齒輪 適合大 車身鋁圈是巧新 散熱系統是建準 車用鏡頭是亞光觸控面板是群創 電源組件台達電
Gogoro 是台灣主要電動車的廠商 2017年 銷售 三四四三四 累積3年 總銷量 約50000台 全台灣電池交換站550站 主要的股東包含 松下 國發基金 潤泰的營衍良 新加坡淡馬錫 法國人員級日本商事住友會社 他曾在2016年 賣給柏林一千台 2017年賣到巴黎600台
2017年全台灣 電動機車銷售 數量 4409 9 其中 gogoro 78 percent 中華6770 光陽1465 三陽718 三葉633
人工智慧的未來
有一篇報告提出未來的人工智慧將可以模仿人的腦進行深度的學習 此外未來的機器人 不需要休息與實務 也不會有情緒 切可以絕對的服從指令在未來的製造業取代藍領的功能 這就是藍領機器人
在2018年 現在每一分鐘全世界產生 2500000則 臉書貼文 4000000個Google搜尋 五萬個APP下載以及2一封的郵件
數據量10分的龐大 所以主要的科技公司都透過併購 來取得大數據分析的工具 和應用 大數據分析的架構可以透過機器的學習 機器可以透過篩選與萃取 重分析對象 龐大的資料 圖片影像文字 冷萃取出想要學習的資料 然後透過機器學習的引擎 產出分析的模式與演算法再透過分析經過分類以及找出數值 來驗證分析的結果
總的來說 大數據分析的價值鏈分為5個部分 收集 需要透過晶片和終端或環境感測的裝置 儲存需要有個巨量的資料庫軟體或平台 將資料儲存到雲端 萃取 需要有數學的演算法可以進行資料的挖掘和資料的壓縮 分析需要建立分析的模型以及專業分析的人員給予調整與訓練 最後應用 就是要有趨勢的預測 將分析的決策如何應用在適合的地方也可以提供一些使用者的介面 讓這些應用提供給其他的 應用開發商讓他們來使用
目前看到大數據分析比較有價值的潛力行業包括 廣告媒體產業 政府公部門 智慧工廠 的流程管理 零售與批發的管理 醫療的照護 以及教育
在台灣可以結合一些開放的優質資料 例如媒體的資料 悠遊卡的數據健保卡的數據 以及電子化的政府 所以 未來如何將資料 透過串流 採集的方式 結合企業本身的數據進行及時的分析這將是一個大數據商機所必備的基礎
進行大數據分析需要有資料科學家的參與 資料科學家在應用的領域有專業的知識 他們也懂得一些 IP地技能 同時對於量化分析 與關聯性 有一些 資料科學的常識因此才可以 將數據變成黃金
有一些產業別的人工智慧創新應用服務 的例子 例如偵測信用卡交易模型預測潛在的照片 並提供預警 觀察個人的信用資料與稅務資料來推測消費者的收入 透過分析消費者的信用貸款 進而判斷是否提供小額的信貸 透過消費者所上傳的照片進行旅遊的建議 利用關鍵字的搜尋來推測哪些熱門的旅遊地點與規劃 透過氣喘病人的 呼吸器依其感測裝置透過GPS尋找氣喘發作的環境因素 透過穿戴裝置追蹤民眾的睡眠 以及心理壓力 透過消費者在網路上的使用網站與內容進行歸納與分析須預測廣告推播的精準資訊
未來產業的策略建議是針對資訊硬體產業 需要整合軟體與硬體 擴增雲設備 強化顧問服務的能力 並且加強在網路服務與電子商務產業的機會
參考全球幾個數位平台的大贏家 例如Amazon netflix Apple Google linkedin Airbnb uber 等等 這些全球 巨擘 有明確的 差異 化客戶價值與平台服務 值得參考
醫療產業與人工智慧
因為人的老化超高齡的社會 造成醫療數據跟病患人數的增加 超出現有醫生與護士人員的負擔 能力
現在人工智慧在健康與醫療領域的5大應用 包含醫生診療的輔助 病人的影像分析醫院的管理藥物的開發與健康的監控
IBM的華生AI， 他是有90台 伺服器組成 有2800多顆核心處理器 每秒可處理500g個byte的數據
華山收集了 醫學期刊教科書臨床案例病例影像等12000000筆資料 當病患 有症狀或資料需要比對的時候 輸入系統 華森哲可以比對然後提供各種治療方案 並且提供不同建議方案的對應 評分給醫生 做選擇
目前全球有60家醫院採用 主要產品 作為癌症的篩選與比較 例如台北醫學大學在2017年開始測試 可用來分析病患資料並利於影像提供醫生做為癌症用藥的建議 他包含12種癌症 例如乳癌肺癌大腸癌直腸癌子宮頸癌攝護腺癌胃癌與卵巢癌 他也漸漸的拓展到慢性病 如糖尿病白內障漸凍人白血病心臟病等 下一步將從基因學切入 可以再10分鐘內進行基因定序提供腦瘤患者 突變基因與找出治療建議
華生還跟製藥大廠 進行中流免疫藥物的研究 逗點 或是跟醫療照護的領域 其他單位 進行合作與尋找解決方案
Google在2014年併購 了 deepmind公司2016年發展alphago成名、後來做健康相關的、 和英國的 國家健保服務 nhs 合作 包含 透過人工智慧 改善醫療流程 節省醫護人員的時間 貨已深度學習來研究一百萬份眼部光學掃描 進而探討黃斑部病變與糖尿病併發失明的眼疾 此外 透過人工 智慧的技術 來分割頭部跟頸部的癌症的電腦斷層CT 與核磁共振MRI找出適合的分割的治療區域
微軟則開發多項 智慧醫療的技術 包含民眾的健康助理 醫院管理的平台 以及智慧機器人 十萬 也打造開放平台 並與多家醫院合作 常識包含癌症與慢性病管理的 應用 在中國的 三大軟體巨擘 百度阿里與騰訊 也都有在人工智慧醫療上有所著墨 此外許多新創的公司 也在尋找人工智慧應用的機會
Trump trade war
在1109期 的今周刊 主標題提到 川普的貿易戰 川普宣布將對進口的鋼鋁產品分別徵收25與10 %重稅率 預計在3月23日正式生效 回顧過去30年 美國曾經在1988年對歐洲食品課徵一輩的進口關稅 在2002年 宣布徵收高達30 %的鋼品全球性關稅 2012年對中國太陽能面板進口關稅提高2015年提高對中國鋼鐵的進口關稅 這次的行動可能產生的後果是中國可能向世界貿易組織提出申訴 然後世界貿易組織可能要求美國停止 若美國那不接受改變 折衷國可以再向世界貿易組織申請報復興授權對美國進口商品 進行報復性的關稅到時候將會有貿易戰產出
貿易戰的後果 可能造成全球經濟重創之外 台灣被投資機構點名恐將成為風暴的核心 根據華盛頓智庫的研究 若全球爆發平均關稅增加10 % 和大多數國家的國民生產毛額將會減少1到5個percent 金融市場短期也會造成直接的影響 進而引發通貨膨脹的惡化 當然美國債券市場除了面對升息加速的壓力外也必須擔心中日拋售美在做為報復的手段 進而重演美國殖利率及生的戲碼而造成對川普政府的壓力 今周刊列出三種可能的情境 最慘烈的事 中國 出口成長下跌 6 percent 國民生產毛額下降1 percent 造成美國一年後國民生產毛額也會掉1 percent 第二種可能是中國出口成長下跌 一個percent 第三 有可能是 雙方在合理時間達成協議減少兩國的貿易赤字 中國開放更多的 美國產品的進口讓局勢趨於穩定因此雙方的貿易赤字縮小到一千 億美元左右
今周刊訪問了吉姆羅傑斯 川普這場 表演應該是想要秀肌肉 告訴世人他打貿易戰的決心這場貿易戰雖然中國首當其衝彈韓國新加坡台灣等東南亞國家都會受到波及德美國也不會得到什麼好處 因為通貨膨脹將影響銀行利率的走勢甚而影響房地產的價格 因此 接下來要看我們 歐盟會不會反制？中國會不會報復以及世界貿易組織是否能制止美國的行為 總之就看這各方的反應以及後續的變化吧
3/21/2018
3/20/2018
Driving business transformation with AI
Speaker...Tracy Tsai
Topic 1...where are we now, where will we go and how can we arrive?
big trouble in slowing China.
energy consumption n GDP are downtrend.
the path to digital business, and then autonomous business by AI's
gartner hype cycle 2017July
AI deeplearning, machine lesrning, NLP 尚有2~5年才能成熟、86%仍在頂而未落地
topic 2.. build an enterprise view when creating AI cases
business value by 3 parts..
改善效能品质
改善客戶体驗
新獲利模式及收入
haier 的智慧厨房生態..不是只做產品_找不同伙伴合作
crowdsourcing to design products..請使用者來提案
thysenkrupp 使用微软hololens (每个要三到五千美金)來做智慧電梯的维修
visulize及identify problems.
美的冰箱
原先設計智能的知道各種菜色的存量、但不易辨别而失敗
試衣鏡放在店裡、给誰用?
金融控管fraud n risk management
-用戶行為及異常追踪
保險理賠的自動化
-車禍時即時上傳影片
零售定价的試算、ex京東
法律合约的預筛及審核_legal robot
VCA virtual customer assistant
把所有客戶打進來的电話或对話都做分析
利用对客戶的更多了理解進而得到更多资讯
工廠的品貨控管 Govion 智能視觉机器 Wysengine
-庫存管理
-需求預測
-電脑視觉
-用machine learning for collabotative robots
machine vision
solomon、object recognition , accupick 3D 绑鞋带
tm 達明、視觉
staples 的倉儲机器人
利用数据去驅动以及结果修正來优化
中國用人臉做身分辨认
airdoc, 推想科技、及匯医慧影 利用lBM 來做医预診
VPA virtual personal assistant
智慧音箱
中国很多只抓keywords ,其linguistic 分析都不夠、錯很多
中國人臉支付、其实都只是謔頭、須另一道密码確定
來也、微軟小冰
重複性的輸入会被記錄
Kneron (Qualcomm 投資
可以离线使用、值得关注
TOPIC 3…挑战
IT OT 的未整合
lT... ERP, HR..
OT..SCADA, EMS, MES..
domain understanding, data science, IT skills 三方未整合
思考AI可做什么
小規模做POC、
找到或培育合适的人來参与
3/14/2018
Appworks Jamie 的演講
主題 AI eating the world, what is the future of work?
Jamie 1999 時創立公司哈酷网及旅游社群sosauce
推荐一部电影westworld 理解意識
alphago zero vs alphago 、因前者没受限于之前的棋譜、反而可以勝了後者
google deep mind 的目的在協助人們、提供認知人的助理、協助生活大小事、甚至家中助理
AI的应用包含工廒自动化、自驾车、
AI会取代驾驶、物流
Amazon 買了Ring、smart lock、未來能到自动送貨到家
空拍机drone代送貨
送便当的机器人、自动送貨
未來的行李會自动轉动、跟著人走
Pepper机器人、未來可以取代实体的服務
umbo smartdome 是可以用AI即時分析及監控
客服机器人
谷歌的learning software 正在学習写程式
谷歌的inceptionism 可以 修改图片的主題、画数似梵谷风格的画、也可以编曲
未來只有10,%的人有工作
creativity vs reproductivity 要制造新領域的人才能存下
mindset vs skillset 要改变下一代的人的心態、下代人的生存的技能是什么？
有很多人不會工作、他们在做什么?
sense of meaning and achievement 以前的人種田觉得有意义、現在的人認為工作或上班才有意义、未來呢？很多人没工作是否对的?
universal basic income, 未來20年後会不会很多人不用工作就有政府给钱、ex2萬元_未來的生活費会很便宜 因為不用人來服務、服務成本降低了、另一个思考、人生的意义是什么、也許不必工作無憂無慮的人也許是快樂
virtual reality, 人可以隨時回到过去的年代去体驗、生活更多的丰富性
population 未來的人口數会成長或減少?
new frontiers 宇宙探索有很多的方向
nevigate the next 30 years?
我们未知未來、我们須思考
那我们怎么準备?
1一be scared, 害怕AI
2一Stay up-to-date、注意各種新科技
-那些AI公司? Google I/O發表的影片、FB及MS
Study AAMAF
廣告的价值鏈
用戶一裝置-OS-app-頻宽-伺服器-广告科技-广告
Google往广告科技到OS都自己來
Google commoditizes value chain他拿不到的角色
免费而去dominate 部分关鍵角色
3一learn new skills
machine learning crash course 是由google 提供的
4一choose career path wisely
未來AI世界應該有助于女性主管
Kevin Kelly 必然 問題與反思二
總的分類，以方便記得本書的12個名詞
前言&結語
#12 開始 Beginning
#1 形成 Becoming:
科技的能力
#2 認知 Cognifying 電腦的認知能力加強，人工智慧
#7 過濾 Filtering 電腦搜尋能力加強，主動幫助人們更快過濾所需要的
#9 互動 Interacting 電腦／VR的互動能力，透過感測器讓人們更容易取得資訊或遊戲
#10 追蹤 Tracking 物聯網的紀錄能力，讓人們紀錄自己與他人，追蹤進而預測未來
內容的新特性
#3 流動 （複製）flowing 內容在網路上自由流傳， 很容易被複製
#8 重新組合 Remixing 內容被重新組合，版權不知歸誰所有
#11 提問 Questioning 內容多到不行，要取得正確的內容，必須提對問題去搜尋
人的行為
#4 多螢幕 Screening 人會使用多螢幕
#5 存取權 Accessing 人要使用，而不需要擁有
#6 共享 Sharing 人們主動分享
前言&結語
#12 開始 Beginning
#1 形成 Becoming:
科技的能力
#2 認知 Cognifying 電腦的認知能力加強，人工智慧
#7 過濾 Filtering 電腦搜尋能力加強，主動幫助人們更快過濾所需要的
#9 互動 Interacting 電腦／VR的互動能力，透過感測器讓人們更容易取得資訊或遊戲
#10 追蹤 Tracking 物聯網的紀錄能力，讓人們紀錄自己與他人，追蹤進而預測未來
內容的新特性
#3 流動 （複製）flowing 內容在網路上自由流傳， 很容易被複製
#8 重新組合 Remixing 內容被重新組合，版權不知歸誰所有
#11 提問 Questioning 內容多到不行，要取得正確的內容，必須提對問題去搜尋
人的行為
#4 多螢幕 Screening 人會使用多螢幕
#5 存取權 Accessing 人要使用，而不需要擁有
#6 共享 Sharing 人們主動分享
Kevin Kelly 必然 12 開始
最後這 頁數只有7頁 他要提到的是 現在是一個開始 也漸漸的要為未來30到50年的事奠下基礎 作者提出 全體的概念 也就是所有人類集體的智慧 也結合了所有機器的集體行為 例如全世界50億手機跟2O億電腦組成的一個網絡電腦組成的一個網絡 這個網絡 不斷的在成長 不斷的在產生新的資訊也不斷的在累積經驗 也在進行機器的學習 有人在問 未來的幾點是什麼 作者認為 未來是軟起點也就是說人工智慧不會聰明到把人類變成奴隸 而是人類跟機器必須互相合作相互依賴 坐著也無法預測未來30年 有哪些特殊的產品品牌或者商店 30年之後的人類社會 會是什麼樣坐著也無法預估 唯一確認的事 網際網路的流動會增加 會有更多的共享更多的追蹤更多的使用更多的互動更多的螢幕更多的組合更多的過濾更多的認知更多的提問以及更多的行程而現在開始正要開始
3/13/2018
Kevin Kelly 必然 11 提問
提問
未來的時代 是資訊爆炸的時代 也是思想多元化的時代 從前我們只會接受主流的媒體訊息 從書本上 課堂的學習上所得到的都是大多數人的行為與資訊 嬰兒我們會忽略了許多 極端的現象 甚至我們會 把許多 不是大眾化的內容視為異常而去否決他 甚至不相信這些事情的存在
舉例來說 作者會認為維基百科是不可能成功的 但後來 維基百科成功了 作者在20年前 看到 電子商務 拍賣網站 不認為這樣的經營模式可以成功 在20年前也沒有人相信可以在手機裡 放大縮小瀏覽世界的地圖 還有其其他的 不可思議的事 例如有人 人口 垂直的跑上大樓 逗點 小偷會卡在煙囪裡 小狗會開門騎摩托車等等 我們也可以看到體重最重的人 身高最短的人 以前我們認為確定的事情到了網際網路時代 網路呈現給我們許多不確定的事 在網際網路時代 我們很難接受單一權威的說法 而我們必須面對各種半真半假 似是而非的訊息 我們 難以判斷 這是真的嗎 我該相信什麼
在這個時代 我們看到 許多跟自己想像不一樣的事情 而許多的事情都沒有標準答案 甚至還有許多人會造假發送 不正確的消息 還有許多的廣告主 為了吸引 人類的目光與注意力 想盡辦法 讓人們 在一個假的訊息上面 或是隱瞞的消息上面按下連結
因此我們都想知道答案 想知道什麼是真什麼是假
當資訊快速的成長 我們的問題也會快速的成長 我們沒有理由相信 未來的問題會更少 但我們相信未來要尋找答案的過程需要問出更多的問題 就以谷歌的搜尋引擎為例 每年 人類在 搜尋引擎上提問了兩兆個問題 答案也許都不錯不少答案也讓人嘖嘖稱奇而且免費
但你知道嗎 谷歌的搜尋引擎每一次提供一個答案 他旁邊的廣告將可以幫他帶來27每分地收入 因此 我們也要問 谷歌搜尋引擎優先送出來的答案 是否是 最好的答案
作者在探討 谷歌 找檔案的時間 平均是7分鐘 而如果 學生 透過圖書館或其他的資料來取得檔案可能需要22分鐘 若用每小時22美元的薪資來計算 谷歌 的搜尋可以節省資源 將近兩塊錢
未來 透過語音 助理 來尋求答案 因為提問的次數大量的增加 尋求答案的成本將會大幅的降低
未來的搜尋 搜尋結果可以很快的提供出來 但是 檔案越容易產生 也可能變得廉價 反而是問對的問題 才可以得到有價值的答案 因此能夠問對問題 問的 恰當 才可以得到更精準的答案 提出對的問題比快速的提供解答更有價值也更有力量
未來在資訊爆炸是非很難 輕易判斷 網路的資訊參差不齊 這些種種亂象之下 會提出適當的問題精準的問題協助其他人來達成他們的需要 這種提問很有價值 而誰能扮演這種提問的角色呢 顯然 有一種有一種行業叫顧問公司 可以在這其中有新的發展
Kevin Kelly 必然 10 追蹤
追蹤 你知道現在有小小的電子計步器可以放在你的鞋子裡 記錄你每天運動的狀況 消耗的熱量 然後輕易的可以傳到你的手機然後連到雲端去 簡單說 新的科技讓我們可以隨時的量化自我 未來的追蹤可以包含飲食健康的程度睡眠的狀態心情寫意的狀態基因還有位置 作者提到有一位電腦科學家 什麼爾每天追蹤的健康參數包含上百個 例如表皮的溫度 皮膚的電子反應 自己排泄物的微生物構造 甚至可以診斷自己與測了會患大腸 發炎 有一位數學家 開發了一個聰明的軟體應用程式 可以運用它所儲存下來的1700000個檔案 他處理了25年收送貨的電子郵件以及13年來敲擊鍵盤的紀錄 等等 進而分析 他的習慣以及生產力 在晶片變得越來越小電池越來越19加上雲端的連線許多個人都可以透過晶片來長期追蹤自己的健康狀況 這些記錄有助於未來個人獨特的療法以及個人的藥物
未來的追蹤不只在健康方面還可以擴展到生活上作為記憶的輔助 例如我們 眼睛耳朵每天所看到了人事物以及聽到的事情 都可以記錄起來 加上 每天的電子郵件 和訊息 聽過的音樂看過的書 去過的位置都可以加入記錄這整個叫做生命流 他可以按照時間的順序記錄 個人的電子生命 包含相片通訊帳單電影與音軟體從過去到現在 你可以回頭看看過去的幾10年 所發生的每一件大大小小的事 也可以看看過去的生命中跟哪些人的生命流有所 交錯 當然 現在的許多社群網站例如臉書 谷歌或者是手機 都記錄了許多個人的行為 以及歷史 生命留可以當作是主動有意義的追蹤 也可以是自己用手機拍照 標記的朋友刻意打卡的內容以及克利用運動資料記錄的 軌跡 另一方面 有些被動的追蹤叫做生命的紀錄 1980年代有一個叫做尼爾森的人 他用錄音帶跟錄影帶錄下了別人的對話他不管重點也不管地點 只要是他遇上的人他都跟他們做了一個記錄 後來還有一個人在麻省理工學院的曼恩 他頭上戴著攝影機錄下一整天的生活跟每一件事25年來只要他醒著就把攝影機打開 不斷的拍攝 微軟的貝爾進行一個mylifebits 的實驗 只要有人靠近他每60秒就拍一張照片 他演紀錄跟存檔電腦上敲下的鍵盤美豐的電子郵件以及造訪的網站在電腦上每個視窗開啟的時間以及各種的對話 他希望尋找是否能夠發明什麼樣的生命記錄工具 這項工具可以協助他 記得過去發生什麼事當他需要的時候就可以再回去尋找 另一方面他可以去觀察他所見過的人和他身邊的人 他們的行為簡單說生命記錄可以有四種類別的好處 第一時無刻的監控重要的身體測量結果 第二 對所碰到的人說過的話去過的地方參加過的活動留下互動19的回憶 D3 將所寫的說的做的東西全部存檔記錄下來 第四 經過組織 調整後可以不定期的閱讀個人的生活方式
以前我們做的是人的連網 可以追蹤自己生命中的大小事 人的聯網也可以延伸到人的開車 把車上的使用方式駕駛距離速度煞車等等全部的資料都可以記錄下來進而降低人的保費
未來的機會是在於物聯網 物聯網要將全世界幾百一的物品都能夠連上網路 這樣我們就可以 追蹤 身邊奶子成是乃至各種的 物品的記錄 例如汽車移動的紀錄 路況 共享的計程車長途的旅行無人的飛機郵件 水電費手機的位置攝影機 智慧的建築 住宅內的監控 家裡的互動裝置如遊戲機電視機 消費的會員卡電子的零售信用卡的交易墊子的錢包 網路的活動社群的行為看過的影片閱讀的影片健康的追蹤 當我們把所有身邊的大大小小的東西都可以進行追蹤 這時候如果我們希望能夠有一個讓人害怕的老大哥的獨裁者順勢而起 因為這個老大哥 將可以正合以上所有的資料 然後 進行對個人隱私及人權的監控
在關鍵報告的原作短篇故事 未來的監控系統可以在 犯罪行為前預估 然後逮捕嫌犯 也許再50年後 我們可以追蹤自己 朋友也可以追蹤我們 商店和政府也可以追蹤我們 而人們 樂意提供資料給機器 是為了交換免費 取得的服務和應用 未來也許社會制度與法律 會提供一個平衡 在個人的隱私 追蹤的 危害 獲利 之間 取得平衡
作者還提到 對稱性的追蹤 也就是說 作者認為未來的資訊會越來越透明 每個人知道自己被追蹤可以看到自己被追蹤的資訊 同時也可以看到別人也可以追蹤別人 也能夠用負責的態度來共享別人的資訊 這時 坐著提出的理想世界 市政府 再追蹤民眾 但政府也很公開的讓民眾知道 民眾所有公開的資訊 是為了提供民眾更好的待遇 當所有的資訊是透明的 政府讓民眾很清楚的知道 民眾被追蹤 民眾就可以獲得他要的東西 就如同民眾願意在臉書上分享自己的隱私與資訊 民眾也知道臉書正在追蹤他們 民眾知道警察正在偷拍他有沒有違規 警察正在追蹤每一個人 如果民眾也可以取得警察錄影帶的所有資訊民眾也可以監督檢警察 也可以監督政府官員大家是對稱的 那就沒有所謂的隱私了
在網際網路上匿名是好的事嗎 有些恐怖份子就是在社群網站上匿名 而可以不負責任不留情面的威脅恐嚇他人 這種命名的隱私 其實是不健康的 健康的隱私必須靠信任來獲得信任則需要不變的身份 當每一個人 都用真實的身份透明的與其他人往來的時候其實就沒有所謂的隱私
大量的追蹤產生大量的數據 大量的數據需要有一些分析工具 來管理 未來需要仰賴機器學習的人工智慧 才能夠協助我們 用重心的方法 來解析龐大的數據 排列 各種的影像 進而分析
簡單來說 未來的世界 每個人每個事務 都被追蹤 而每個人可以看到自己的歷史 也可以看到別人的被追蹤資料 甚至可以透過人工智慧去預測他人的行為與自己的未來 因此大數據的分析機器的學習 會是未來因應追蹤而產生的商機
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