EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
• Trade wars disrupt global supply chains casting doubt over the future of economic globalization.
• Economic growth in the U.S. and China will fall marginally. Escalation of the trade war or turning it into a permanent phenomenon will suppress global growth visibly.
• Southeast Asian exports of intermediate goods to China will be hit, but the trade war may lead to U.S. demand for Southeast Asian goods replacing imports from China.
• The indirect, long-term positive effect will be a stronger and faster switch from global to a regional supply chains auguring a more self-sustaining Asian economy.
經濟學人分析：
Creative disruption： Asia’s winners in the US-China trade war
The trade war will result in a significant shift in export-oriented manufacturing from China to other markets in Asia, a relocation that is likely to have a net positive impact for many countries in the region. (In some ways, this will represent a reversal of the trend seen in the early part of this century, when China’s rise as an export powerhouse diverted investment from ASEAN economies that were still reeling from the 1997 Asian financial crisis.) The shift will help to drive the development of the local automotive, ICT and apparel sectors in South and South-east Asia, bringing in more advanced equipment and technical expertise.
However, for a majority of the countries involved the impact of these changes will not be felt overnight. Indeed, it is likely to take at least two to three years for the effects of the trade war to be fully realised. Multinational companies will need time to draft new global and regional strategies, find new partners, navigate different legal systems and secure the required licences and permits for new production facilities. As a result, the negative, disruptive effects of the trade war will predominate in the short term. Even under the most optimistic scenario, the benefits for Asia’s winners in the trade war are unlikely to be seen before 2020.
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